Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lakers @ Dolphins MERC @ LEM

MERCYHURST

LAKERSMERC

12-13  |  Road

57
FINAL
Thu, Feb 12 • 7:00 PM ET
Ted Grant Court
View Odds Details →

LE MOYNE

DOLPHINSLEM

12-13  |  Home

58
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
0%
📊
DOLPHINS
100%
LAKERS --
DOLPHINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-30.0
MERCYHURST
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +30.0 points (Mercyhurst)
LakersMERC (-3.5) 0 DolphinsLEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lakers Cover

99.9%

Dolphins Cover

0.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MERC -30.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MERC)

MERC By 1-7 points

1.1%

MERC By 8-14 points

4.8%

LEM By 1-7 points

0.1%

LEM By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
87
MERCYHURST
57
LE MOYNE
Simulated Score
68
MERCYHURST
72
LE MOYNE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lakers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dolphins Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lakers (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -30.0
D
Sim Dolphins (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o137.5 Loss
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim u137.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 12, 2026 MERC @ LEM 57 - 58
Jan 4, 2026 LEM @ MERC 60 - 74
Feb 8, 2025 LEM @ MERC 78 - 82
Jan 12, 2025 MERC @ LEM 63 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +10.2% more
Mercyhurst: 3.1 vs Le Moyne: 2.8
Free Throw % (L5) +7.0%
Mercyhurst: 76.5% vs Le Moyne: 69.4%
Turnovers (L5) +81.2% more
Le Moyne: 15.8 vs Mercyhurst: 8.7
Steals (L5) +12.1% more
Le Moyne: 6.3 vs Mercyhurst: 5.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MERC Score 87.0 57
LEM Score 57.0 58
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.9 / 32.2 13.0 / 23.0
Assists 14.1 / 15.2 14.0 / 9.0
Blocks 2.8 / 3.1 0.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 52.2 / 45.4 43.0 / 33.0
Free Throw % 69.4 / 76.5 56.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 32.5 / 32.5 44.0 / 34.0
Steals 6.3 / 5.6 4.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 15.8 / 8.7 18.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MERC Advantage
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.0 ATS +/-: +2.4
LEM
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MERC Advantage
21-11-0 (65.6%)
Margin: 2.0 ATS +/-: +2.4
LEM
16-15-0 (51.6%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
MERC
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.7
LEM
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LEM
MERC
LEM
MERC
ML
68% 21-10
59% 20-14
68% 21-10
79% 26-7
ATS
65% 20-11
62% 21-13
69% 22-10
79% 26-7
TTL
42% 13-18
53% 18-16
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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