UC IRVINE
ANTEATERSUCI
16-8 | Road
73
CAL POLY
MUSTANGSCP
9-16 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
ANTEATERS
100%
MUSTANGS
0%
ANTEATERS
--
MUSTANGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
CAL POLY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (Cal Poly)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CP -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CP)
UCI By 1-7 points
0.5%
UCI By 8-14 points
0.1%
CP By 1-7 points
3.3%
CP By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
UC Irvine
61
UC IRVINE
Cal Poly
86
CAL POLY
Simulated Score
UC Irvine
75
UC IRVINE
Cal Poly
62
CAL POLY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mustangs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Anteaters
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mustangs (+5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim
Anteaters (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u159.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim
u159.5
Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 5, 2026
CP @ UCI
85 - 107
Feb 12, 2026
UCI @ CP
73 - 79
Mar 14, 2025
CP @ UCI
78 - 96
Jan 18, 2025
CP @ UCI
71 - 101
Jan 2, 2025
UCI @ CP
98 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+47.0% more
Cal Poly: 16.5
vs
UC Irvine: 11.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+16.1%
Cal Poly: 90.3%
vs
UC Irvine: 74.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.4%
Cal Poly: 32.3%
vs
UC Irvine: 26.0%
Blocks (L5)
+50.4% more
UC Irvine: 5.4
vs
Cal Poly: 2.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UCI Score
61.0
73
CP Score
86.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.3 / 26.0
37.0 / 39.0
Assists
14.2 / 14.6
18.0 / 16.0
Blocks
2.7 / 5.4
3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
44.0 / 45.8
39.0 / 37.0
Free Throw %
90.3 / 74.2
72.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
34.6 / 39.0
51.0 / 40.0
Steals
7.9 / 8.1
10.0 / 14.0
Turnovers
16.5 / 11.2
21.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCI
Advantage
23-12-0
(65.7%)
Margin: 8.6
ATS +/-: +0.3
CP
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCI
16-16-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 8.6
ATS +/-: +0.3
CP
Advantage
16-14-1
(53.3%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UCI
12-21-0
O: 36.4% / U: 63.6%
Total +/-: -2.8
CP
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CP
UCI
CP
UCI
ML
58%
19-14
57%
20-15
58%
19-14
53%
18-16
ATS
64%
21-12
63%
22-13
58%
19-14
53%
18-16
TTL
61%
20-13
57%
20-15
100%
33-0
100%
34-0
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