Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Gauchos @ Highlanders UCSB @ UCR

UC SANTA BARBARA

GAUCHOSUCSB

16-8  |  Road

76
FINAL
Thu, Feb 12 • 10:00 PM ET
SRC Arena
View Odds Details →

UC RIVERSIDE

HIGHLANDERSUCR

8-17  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
GAUCHOS
0%
📊
HIGHLANDERS
100%
GAUCHOS --
HIGHLANDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
UC SANTA BARBARA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (UC Santa Barbara)
GauchosUCSB (-3.5) 0 HighlandersUCR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Gauchos Cover

84.1%

Highlanders Cover

15.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UCSB -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCSB)

UCSB By 1-7 points

23.0%

UCSB By 8-14 points

27.2%

UCR By 1-7 points

10.7%

UCR By 8-14 points

3.3%

AI Model Projected Score
81
UC SANTA BARBARA
71
UC RIVERSIDE
Simulated Score
69
UC SANTA BARBARA
75
UC RIVERSIDE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Gauchos Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Highlanders Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Gauchos (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Highlanders (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o145.5 Loss
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 26, 2026 UCR @ UCSB 59 - 70
Feb 12, 2026 UCSB @ UCR 76 - 68
Feb 15, 2025 UCSB @ UCR 69 - 81
Jan 16, 2025 UCR @ UCSB 63 - 66
Mar 9, 2024 UCR @ UCSB 81 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +17.7% more
UC Santa Barbara: 7.4 vs UC Riverside: 6.1
Assists (L5) +15.3% more
UC Santa Barbara: 14.3 vs UC Riverside: 12.1
Field Goal % (L5) +8.3%
UC Santa Barbara: 49.1% vs UC Riverside: 40.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.0%
UC Santa Barbara: 34.3% vs UC Riverside: 29.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UCSB Score 81.0 76
UCR Score 71.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.3 / 34.3 37.0 / 45.0
Assists 12.1 / 14.3 15.0 / 14.0
Blocks 4.4 / 1.9 4.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 40.9 / 49.1 57.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 73.8 / 75.9 64.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 36.7 / 34.9 25.0 / 28.0
Steals 6.1 / 7.4 5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.9 / 13.1 17.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
97%TICKETS3%
97%MONEY3%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCSB Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
UCR
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.9 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCSB
13-17-0 (43.3%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
UCR Advantage
14-14-2 (50.0%)
Margin: -4.9 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UCSB
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.1
UCR
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCR
UCSB
UCR
UCSB
ML
66% 21-11
59% 19-13
75% 24-8
72% 23-9
ATS
59% 19-13
62% 20-12
75% 24-8
72% 23-9
TTL
66% 21-11
47% 15-17
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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