NORTHERN IOWA
PANTHERSUNI
16-9 | Road
86
BELMONT
BRUINSBEL
22-4 | Home
91
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
0%
BRUINS
100%
PANTHERS
--
BRUINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
NORTHERN IOWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Northern Iowa)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNI -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNI)
UNI By 1-7 points
20.1%
UNI By 8-14 points
27.2%
BEL By 1-7 points
8.0%
BEL By 8-14 points
2.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Northern Iowa
75
NORTHERN IOWA
Belmont
63
BELMONT
Simulated Score
Northern Iowa
71
NORTHERN IOWA
Belmont
75
BELMONT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Panthers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bruins
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Panthers (-4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Bruins (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u139.5
Loss
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim
u139.5
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 12, 2026
UNI @ BEL
86 - 91
Jan 7, 2026
BEL @ UNI
78 - 65
Feb 19, 2025
UNI @ BEL
82 - 75
Jan 1, 2025
BEL @ UNI
70 - 76
Mar 8, 2024
BEL @ UNI
62 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+13.6%
Northern Iowa: 79.2%
vs
Belmont: 65.6%
Steals (L5)
+10.0% more
Northern Iowa: 4.7
vs
Belmont: 4.2
Turnovers (L5)
+50.7% more
Belmont: 13.5
vs
Northern Iowa: 9.0
Blocks (L5)
+49.6% more
Belmont: 3.9
vs
Northern Iowa: 2.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UNI Score
75.0
86
BEL Score
63.0
91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.8 / 32.9
47.0 / 38.0
Assists
19.4 / 14.2
19.0 / 14.0
Blocks
3.9 / 2.6
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
49.9 / 50.9
57.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
65.6 / 79.2
83.0 / 96.0
Rebounding
35.6 / 34.0
26.0 / 26.0
Steals
4.2 / 4.7
7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
13.5 / 9.0
11.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNI
23-13-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 7.7
ATS +/-: +2.4
BEL
Advantage
26-6-0
(81.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNI
Advantage
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 7.7
ATS +/-: +2.4
BEL
17-13-1
(56.7%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UNI
14-21-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0%
Total +/-: -4.7
BEL
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7%
Total +/-: +4.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BEL
UNI
BEL
UNI
ML
47%
15-17
51%
18-17
62%
20-12
56%
19-15
ATS
56%
18-14
49%
17-18
62%
20-12
56%
19-15
TTL
44%
14-18
69%
24-11
100%
32-0
100%
34-0
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