GEORGIA STATE
PANTHERSGAST
9-16 | Road
79
JAMES MADISON
DUKESJMU
12-13 | Home
81
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
100%
DUKES
0%
PANTHERS
--
DUKES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
131.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
JAMES MADISON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (James Madison)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around JMU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JMU)
GAST By 1-7 points
24.3%
GAST By 8-14 points
13.7%
JMU By 1-7 points
26.2%
JMU By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Georgia State
65
GEORGIA STATE
James Madison
66
JAMES MADISON
Simulated Score
Georgia State
72
GEORGIA STATE
James Madison
75
JAMES MADISON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Dukes
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Dukes
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Dukes (+5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Dukes (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u144.5
Loss
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Sim
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
JMU @ GAST
80 - 65
Feb 12, 2026
GAST @ JMU
79 - 81
Feb 20, 2025
GAST @ JMU
63 - 83
Jan 25, 2025
JMU @ GAST
86 - 79
Feb 28, 2024
JMU @ GAST
84 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+36.5% more
James Madison: 12.3
vs
Georgia State: 9.0
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.9%
James Madison: 45.5%
vs
Georgia State: 38.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.5%
James Madison: 32.5%
vs
Georgia State: 29.0%
Assists (L5)
+9.3% more
Georgia State: 13.8
vs
James Madison: 12.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
GAST Score
65.0
79
JMU Score
66.0
81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.5 / 29.0
38.0 / 43.0
Assists
12.5 / 13.8
12.0 / 11.0
Blocks
4.1 / 3.9
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
45.5 / 38.6
48.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
67.8 / 74.6
70.0 / 68.0
Rebounding
36.5 / 34.9
40.0 / 34.0
Steals
4.7 / 5.1
7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.3 / 9.0
15.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GAST
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: -1.5
JMU
Advantage
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GAST
Advantage
13-17-0
(43.3%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: -1.5
JMU
13-19-0
(40.6%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
GAST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: -2.4
JMU
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6%
Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JMU
GAST
JMU
GAST
ML
64%
21-12
56%
18-14
66%
21-11
71%
22-9
ATS
67%
22-11
59%
19-13
66%
21-11
71%
22-9
TTL
67%
22-11
59%
19-13
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
Contextual Game News
