MURRAY STATE
RACERSMUR
18-8 | Road
74
INDIANA STATE
SYCAMORESINST
10-15 | Home
72
AI Model Win Probability
RACERS
0%
SYCAMORES
100%
RACERS
--
SYCAMORES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
MURRAY STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Murray State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MUR -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MUR)
MUR By 1-7 points
18.6%
MUR By 8-14 points
26.8%
INST By 1-7 points
6.8%
INST By 8-14 points
1.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Murray State
83
MURRAY STATE
Indiana State
70
INDIANA STATE
Simulated Score
Murray State
70
MURRAY STATE
Indiana State
78
INDIANA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Racers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Sycamores
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Racers (+3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Sycamores (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u165.5
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim
u165.5
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 12, 2026
MUR @ INST
74 - 72
Jan 17, 2026
INST @ MUR
81 - 85
Feb 25, 2025
INST @ MUR
75 - 85
Dec 18, 2024
MUR @ INST
74 - 84
Mar 3, 2024
MUR @ INST
77 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+14.7%
Murray State: 75.7%
vs
Indiana State: 61.0%
Assists (L5)
+106.4% more
Indiana State: 20.0
vs
Murray State: 9.7
Blocks (L5)
+31.4% more
Indiana State: 4.4
vs
Murray State: 3.3
Steals (L5)
+26.0% more
Indiana State: 6.9
vs
Murray State: 5.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MUR Score
83.0
74
INST Score
70.0
72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.3 / 29.8
40.0 / 33.0
Assists
20.0 / 9.7
16.0 / 13.0
Blocks
4.4 / 3.3
2.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
47.2 / 46.3
45.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
61.0 / 75.7
59.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
34.9 / 32.4
28.0 / 36.0
Steals
6.9 / 5.5
6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
14.5 / 11.9
13.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MUR
Advantage
20-13-0
(60.6%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -2.3
INST
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MUR
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -2.3
INST
Advantage
17-12-1
(58.6%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MUR
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4%
Total +/-: +4.8
INST
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7%
Total +/-: -3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
INST
MUR
INST
MUR
ML
66%
21-11
58%
19-14
53%
17-15
61%
20-13
ATS
62%
20-12
52%
17-16
53%
17-15
61%
20-13
TTL
53%
17-15
70%
23-10
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
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