SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
JACKRABBITSSDST
11-14 | Road
61
DENVER
PIONEERSDEN
12-14 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
JACKRABBITS
100%
PIONEERS
0%
JACKRABBITS
--
PIONEERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
177.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
SDST By 1-7 points
1.4%
SDST By 8-14 points
0.2%
DEN By 1-7 points
6.8%
DEN By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
South Dakota State
78
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
Denver
99
DENVER
Simulated Score
South Dakota State
78
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
Denver
72
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pioneers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Jackrabbits
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pioneers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim
Jackrabbits (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o160.5
Loss
Proj Total: 177.0
D
Sim
u160.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 12, 2026
SDST @ DEN
61 - 79
Jan 8, 2026
DEN @ SDST
79 - 87
Mar 1, 2025
SDST @ DEN
62 - 78
Jan 2, 2025
DEN @ SDST
70 - 91
Mar 12, 2024
DEN @ SDST
68 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.8%
Denver: 79.9%
vs
South Dakota State: 71.1%
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.7%
Denver: 50.7%
vs
South Dakota State: 47.0%
Steals (L5)
+26.4% more
South Dakota State: 4.8
vs
Denver: 3.5
Blocks (L5)
+16.1% more
South Dakota State: 2.0
vs
Denver: 1.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SDST Score
78.0
61
DEN Score
99.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.8 / 35.8
52.0 / 11.0
Assists
12.1 / 13.3
12.0 / 3.0
Blocks
1.7 / 2.0
1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
50.7 / 47.0
48.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
79.9 / 71.1
73.0 / 90.0
Rebounding
37.4 / 36.9
43.0 / 29.0
Steals
3.5 / 4.8
4.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
8.7 / 10.2
8.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SDST
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -1.8
DEN
Advantage
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SDST
12-16-1
(42.9%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -1.8
DEN
Advantage
17-11-1
(60.7%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SDST
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: 0.0
DEN
20-8-1
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6%
Total +/-: +7.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
SDST
DEN
SDST
ML
56%
18-14
75%
24-8
59%
19-13
53%
17-15
ATS
66%
21-11
78%
25-7
59%
19-13
53%
17-15
TTL
59%
19-13
53%
17-15
100%
32-0
100%
32-0
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