Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Bears LT @ MOST

LOUISIANA TECH

BULLDOGSLT

13-10  |  Road

79
FINAL
Thu, Feb 12 • 8:30 PM ET
Great Southern Bank Arena
View Odds Details →

MISSOURI STATE

BEARSMOST

13-10  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
📊
BEARS
0%
BULLDOGS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
119.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
MISSOURI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Missouri State)
BulldogsLT (-3.5) 0 BearsMOST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

13.6%

Bears Cover

86.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MOST -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MOST)

LT By 1-7 points

9.3%

LT By 8-14 points

2.7%

MOST By 1-7 points

21.6%

MOST By 8-14 points

27.4%

AI Model Projected Score
54
LOUISIANA TECH
65
MISSOURI STATE
Simulated Score
68
LOUISIANA TECH
78
MISSOURI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bears Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bears (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u135.5 Loss
Proj Total: 119.0
D
Sim u135.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 13, 2026 MOST @ LT 66 - 69
Feb 26, 2026 MOST @ LT 70 - 72
Feb 12, 2026 LT @ MOST 79 - 78
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +16.1%
Missouri State: 38.8% vs Louisiana Tech: 22.6%
Assists (L5) +10.5% more
Missouri State: 13.9 vs Louisiana Tech: 12.6
Field Goal % (L5) +4.9%
Missouri State: 47.0% vs Louisiana Tech: 42.2%
Blocks (L5) +45.6% more
Louisiana Tech: 4.7 vs Missouri State: 2.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LT Score 54.0 79
MOST Score 65.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.8 / 22.6 26.0 / 25.0
Assists 13.9 / 12.6 11.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.6 / 4.7 8.0 / 12.0
Field Goal % 47.0 / 42.2 35.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 61.1 / 68.2 69.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 32.4 / 40.6 47.0 / 42.0
Steals 7.2 / 6.7 10.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 11.6 / 12.2 18.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
28%MONEY72%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LT Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
MOST
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LT
17-13-1 (56.7%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
MOST Advantage
18-13-0 (58.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
LT
15-15-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.3
MOST
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7% Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MOST
LT
MOST
LT
ML
65% 22-12
58% 19-14
62% 21-13
72% 23-9
ATS
68% 23-11
61% 20-13
62% 21-13
72% 23-9
TTL
44% 15-19
61% 20-13
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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