SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
REDHAWKSSEMO
15-10 | Road
56
SIU EDWARDSVILLE
COUGARSSIUE
16-9 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
REDHAWKS
100%
COUGARS
0%
REDHAWKS
--
COUGARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SIU EDWARDSVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (SIU Edwardsville)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SIUE -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SIUE)
SEMO By 1-7 points
24.3%
SEMO By 8-14 points
13.7%
SIUE By 1-7 points
26.2%
SIUE By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Southeast Missouri State
74
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
SIU Edwardsville
75
SIU EDWARDSVILLE
Simulated Score
Southeast Missouri State
70
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
SIU Edwardsville
75
SIU EDWARDSVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cougars
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cougars
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cougars (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Cougars (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o137.5
Loss
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim
u137.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 12, 2026
SEMO @ SIUE
56 - 74
Jan 17, 2026
SIUE @ SEMO
68 - 55
Mar 8, 2025
SIUE @ SEMO
69 - 48
Feb 27, 2025
SEMO @ SIUE
83 - 68
Dec 21, 2024
SIUE @ SEMO
64 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+16.6% more
SIU Edwardsville: 12.1
vs
Southeast Missouri State: 10.4
Assists (L5)
+9.0% more
SIU Edwardsville: 13.0
vs
Southeast Missouri State: 11.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.1%
SIU Edwardsville: 37.9%
vs
Southeast Missouri State: 30.8%
Steals (L5)
+9.7% more
Southeast Missouri State: 6.2
vs
SIU Edwardsville: 5.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEMO Score
74.0
56
SIUE Score
75.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.9 / 30.8
35.0 / 38.0
Assists
13.0 / 11.9
13.0 / 7.0
Blocks
4.4 / 4.5
4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
45.9 / 50.6
48.0 / 34.0
Free Throw %
75.3 / 74.8
67.0 / 50.0
Rebounding
36.4 / 33.8
43.0 / 30.0
Steals
5.6 / 6.2
8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.1 / 10.4
10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEMO
Advantage
20-13-0
(60.6%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
SIUE
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 6.3
ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEMO
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
SIUE
Advantage
15-14-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 6.3
ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
SEMO
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7%
Total +/-: -2.4
SIUE
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -4.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SIUE
SEMO
SIUE
SEMO
ML
65%
20-11
64%
21-12
60%
18-12
50%
15-15
ATS
55%
17-14
67%
22-11
60%
18-12
50%
15-15
TTL
48%
15-16
58%
19-14
100%
30-0
100%
30-0
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