Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Phoenix @ Seahawks ELON @ UNCW

ELON

PHOENIXELON

13-12  |  Road

54
FINAL
Thu, Feb 12 • 7:00 PM ET
Trask Coliseum
View Odds Details →

UNC WILMINGTON

SEAHAWKSUNCW

20-4  |  Home

65
AI Model Win Probability
PHOENIX
0%
📊
SEAHAWKS
100%
PHOENIX --
SEAHAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-26.0
ELON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +26.0 points (Elon)
PhoenixELON (-3.5) 0 SeahawksUNCW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phoenix Cover

99.5%

Seahawks Cover

0.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ELON -26.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ELON)

ELON By 1-7 points

2.7%

ELON By 8-14 points

9.3%

UNCW By 1-7 points

0.4%

UNCW By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
80
ELON
54
UNC WILMINGTON
Simulated Score
68
ELON
75
UNC WILMINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Phoenix Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Seahawks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Phoenix (-8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Sim Seahawks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 UNCW @ ELON 76 - 57
Feb 12, 2026 ELON @ UNCW 54 - 65
Feb 15, 2025 ELON @ UNCW 81 - 70
Feb 17, 2024 ELON @ UNCW 73 - 72
Jan 18, 2024 UNCW @ ELON 82 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +28.5% more
Elon: 11.0 vs UNC Wilmington: 7.9
Blocks (L5) +20.4% more
Elon: 2.1 vs UNC Wilmington: 1.7
Free Throw % (L5) +4.8%
Elon: 72.3% vs UNC Wilmington: 67.5%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.3%
UNC Wilmington: 36.6% vs Elon: 33.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ELON Score 80.0 54
UNCW Score 54.0 65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.6 / 33.3 44.0 / 19.0
Assists 13.0 / 12.7 16.0 / 9.0
Blocks 1.7 / 2.1 1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 45.4 / 42.8 46.0 / 34.0
Free Throw % 67.5 / 72.3 50.0 / 64.0
Rebounding 35.1 / 36.7 40.0 / 36.0
Steals 5.4 / 5.7 3.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 7.9 / 11.0 12.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ELON
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
UNCW Advantage
27-7-0 (79.4%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ELON
11-19-0 (36.7%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
UNCW Advantage
16-14-2 (53.3%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
ELON
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +1.9
UNCW
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNCW
ELON
UNCW
ELON
ML
64% 21-12
61% 19-12
52% 17-16
71% 22-9
ATS
58% 19-14
55% 17-14
52% 17-16
71% 22-9
TTL
61% 20-13
52% 16-15
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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