Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Seawolves @ Tigers STBK @ TOW

STONY BROOK

SEAWOLVESSTBK

15-10  |  Road

57
FINAL
Thu, Feb 12 • 7:00 PM ET
SECU Arena
View Odds Details →

TOWSON

TIGERSTOW

13-12  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
SEAWOLVES
100%
📊
TIGERS
0%
SEAWOLVES --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-52.0
TOWSON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +52.0 points (Towson)
SeawolvesSTBK (-3.5) 0 TigersTOW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Seawolves Cover

0.0%

Tigers Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TOW -52.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOW)

STBK By 1-7 points

0.0%

STBK By 8-14 points

0.0%

TOW By 1-7 points

0.0%

TOW By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
50
STONY BROOK
102
TOWSON
Simulated Score
68
STONY BROOK
72
TOWSON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (-6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -52.0
D
Sim Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o134.5 Loss
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim u134.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 TOW @ STBK 69 - 57
Feb 12, 2026 STBK @ TOW 57 - 69
Feb 6, 2025 TOW @ STBK 66 - 59
Jan 18, 2025 STBK @ TOW 49 - 53
Jan 11, 2024 STBK @ TOW 64 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +29.0% more
Stony Brook: 13.2 vs Towson: 9.4
Assists (L5) +25.4% more
Stony Brook: 14.0 vs Towson: 10.4
Steals (L5) +25.2% more
Stony Brook: 6.6 vs Towson: 4.9
Free Throw % (L5) +12.2%
Stony Brook: 77.3% vs Towson: 65.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STBK Score 50.0 57
TOW Score 102.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.7 / 36.4 29.0 / 23.0
Assists 10.4 / 14.0 10.0 / 9.0
Blocks 3.2 / 3.3 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 41.6 / 45.4 41.0 / 34.0
Free Throw % 65.1 / 77.3 71.0 / 62.0
Rebounding 36.9 / 37.4 46.0 / 36.0
Steals 4.9 / 6.6 5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 9.4 / 13.2 9.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
45%MONEY55%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
18%MONEY82%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STBK
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: +1.4
TOW Advantage
19-15-0 (55.9%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STBK Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: +1.4
TOW
14-17-1 (45.2%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
STBK
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
TOW
11-21-0
O: 34.4% / U: 65.6% Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOW
STBK
TOW
STBK
ML
66% 21-11
61% 19-12
62% 20-12
71% 22-9
ATS
66% 21-11
61% 19-12
62% 20-12
71% 22-9
TTL
53% 17-15
65% 20-11
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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