YOUNGSTOWN STATE
PENGUINSYSU
12-13 | Road
86
OAKLAND
GOLDEN GRIZZLIESOAK
14-11 | Home
82
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
100%
GOLDEN GRIZZLIES
0%
PENGUINS
--
GOLDEN GRIZZLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
116.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
OAKLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Oakland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OAK -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OAK)
YSU By 1-7 points
8.0%
YSU By 8-14 points
2.2%
OAK By 1-7 points
20.1%
OAK By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Youngstown State
52
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
Oakland
64
OAKLAND
Simulated Score
Youngstown State
72
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
Oakland
75
OAKLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Golden Grizzlies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Golden Grizzlies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Golden Grizzlies (-4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Golden Grizzlies (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u156.5
Loss
Proj Total: 116.0
D
Sim
u156.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 12, 2026
YSU @ OAK
86 - 82
Jan 1, 2026
OAK @ YSU
85 - 83
Feb 6, 2025
YSU @ OAK
84 - 75
Dec 7, 2024
OAK @ YSU
50 - 66
Jan 17, 2024
YSU @ OAK
67 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+50.4% more
Oakland: 6.2
vs
Youngstown State: 4.1
Rebounding (L5)
+28.7% more
Oakland: 38.6
vs
Youngstown State: 30.0
Turnovers (L5)
+10.7% more
Youngstown State: 12.8
vs
Oakland: 11.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.1%
Youngstown State: 36.5%
vs
Oakland: 30.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
YSU Score
52.0
86
OAK Score
64.0
82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.5 / 36.5
40.0 / 34.0
Assists
15.5 / 14.6
15.0 / 23.0
Blocks
6.2 / 4.1
2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
46.6 / 50.7
53.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
75.4 / 75.8
67.0 / 100.0
Rebounding
38.6 / 30.0
26.0 / 36.0
Steals
6.9 / 7.0
11.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
11.5 / 12.8
13.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
YSU
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: -1.3
OAK
Advantage
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
YSU
10-18-1
(35.7%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: -1.3
OAK
Advantage
17-14-0
(54.8%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
YSU
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: +0.2
OAK
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7%
Total +/-: +4.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OAK
YSU
OAK
YSU
ML
62%
20-12
57%
17-13
59%
19-13
67%
20-10
ATS
50%
16-16
47%
14-16
59%
19-13
67%
20-10
TTL
62%
20-12
60%
18-12
100%
32-0
100%
30-0
