Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tigers @ Mean Green MEM @ UNT

MEMPHIS

TIGERSMEM

12-11  |  Road

69
FINAL
Thu, Feb 12 • 9:00 PM ET
The Super Pit
View Odds Details →

NORTH TEXAS

MEAN GREENUNT

13-11  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
0%
📊
MEAN GREEN
100%
TIGERS --
MEAN GREEN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Memphis)
TigersMEM (-3.5) 0 Mean GreenUNT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

97.7%

Mean Green Cover

2.3%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MEM -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)

MEM By 1-7 points

8.0%

MEM By 8-14 points

18.6%

UNT By 1-7 points

1.7%

UNT By 8-14 points

0.3%

AI Model Projected Score
84
MEMPHIS
64
NORTH TEXAS
Simulated Score
68
MEMPHIS
73
NORTH TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mean Green Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim Mean Green (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o138.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim u138.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 12, 2026 MEM @ UNT 69 - 76
Dec 31, 2025 UNT @ MEM 48 - 57
Jan 5, 2025 UNT @ MEM 64 - 68
Feb 15, 2024 MEM @ UNT 66 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +13.7% more
Memphis: 3.7 vs North Texas: 3.2
Turnovers (L5) +13.5% more
Memphis: 12.8 vs North Texas: 11.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.9%
Memphis: 31.6% vs North Texas: 21.7%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.1%
Memphis: 45.8% vs North Texas: 41.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 84.0 69
UNT Score 64.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 21.7 / 31.6 20.0 / 32.0
Assists 13.5 / 14.5 6.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.2 / 3.7 5.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 41.7 / 45.8 45.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 73.3 / 75.7 76.0 / 87.0
Rebounding 39.5 / 38.9 36.0 / 30.0
Steals 12.2 / 9.3 11.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 11.0 / 12.8 15.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
76%MONEY24%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
31%MONEY69%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
UNT Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 3.5 ATS +/-: -0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
UNT Advantage
17-14-0 (54.8%)
Margin: 3.5 ATS +/-: -0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.8
UNT
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNT
MEM
UNT
MEM
ML
70% 23-10
62% 20-12
59% 19-13
68% 21-10
ATS
52% 17-16
62% 20-12
59% 19-13
68% 21-10
TTL
67% 22-11
66% 21-11
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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