Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Skyhawks @ Lions UTM @ LIN

UT MARTIN

SKYHAWKSUTM

19-6  |  Road

74
FINAL
Thu, Feb 12 • 8:30 PM ET
Hyland Arena
View Odds Details →

LINDENWOOD

LIONSLIN

15-10  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
SKYHAWKS
100%
📊
LIONS
0%
SKYHAWKS --
LIONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
113.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
LINDENWOOD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Lindenwood)
SkyhawksUTM (-3.5) 0 LionsLIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Skyhawks Cover

9.7%

Lions Cover

90.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LIN -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LIN)

UTM By 1-7 points

6.8%

UTM By 8-14 points

1.7%

LIN By 1-7 points

18.6%

LIN By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
50
UT MARTIN
63
LINDENWOOD
Simulated Score
71
UT MARTIN
75
LINDENWOOD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lions Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lions Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lions (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Lions (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u145.5 Loss
Proj Total: 113.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 12, 2026 UTM @ LIN 74 - 75
Jan 17, 2026 LIN @ UTM 55 - 69
Feb 6, 2025 LIN @ UTM 52 - 51
Jan 11, 2025 UTM @ LIN 81 - 82
Feb 22, 2024 UTM @ LIN 106 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +19.3% more
Lindenwood: 4.6 vs UT Martin: 3.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +11.0%
Lindenwood: 38.1% vs UT Martin: 27.2%
Assists (L5) +8.0% more
Lindenwood: 14.3 vs UT Martin: 13.2
Free Throw % (L5) +5.9%
Lindenwood: 68.5% vs UT Martin: 62.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTM Score 50.0 74
LIN Score 63.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.1 / 27.2 24.0 / 39.0
Assists 14.3 / 13.2 17.0 / 16.0
Blocks 4.6 / 3.8 1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 43.9 / 38.1 56.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 68.5 / 62.6 79.0 / 52.0
Rebounding 39.2 / 42.9 30.0 / 29.0
Steals 7.7 / 8.8 10.0 / 14.0
Turnovers 13.8 / 13.2 17.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
32%MONEY68%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTM Advantage
22-11-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +1.6
LIN
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTM Advantage
15-14-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +1.6
LIN
14-15-1 (48.3%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UTM
9-21-0
O: 30.0% / U: 70.0% Total +/-: -8.2
LIN
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LIN
UTM
LIN
UTM
ML
47% 15-17
69% 22-10
61% 19-12
69% 20-9
ATS
34% 11-21
56% 18-14
61% 19-12
69% 20-9
TTL
53% 17-15
44% 14-18
100% 31-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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