Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Knights @ Bears BELL @ CARK

BELLARMINE

KNIGHTSBELL

11-13  |  Road

76
FINAL
Wed, Feb 11 • 7:30 PM ET
Farris Center
View Odds Details →

CENTRAL ARKANSAS

BEARSCARK

15-10  |  Home

84
AI Model Win Probability
KNIGHTS
0%
📊
BEARS
100%
KNIGHTS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
125.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-35.0
BELLARMINE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +35.0 points (Bellarmine)
KnightsBELL (-3.5) 0 BearsCARK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Knights Cover

100.0%

Bears Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BELL -35.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BELL)

BELL By 1-7 points

0.3%

BELL By 8-14 points

1.7%

CARK By 1-7 points

0.0%

CARK By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
80
BELLARMINE
45
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Simulated Score
72
BELLARMINE
75
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Knights Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Knights (-8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -35.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Loss
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 6, 2026 BELL @ CARK 73 - 86
Feb 11, 2026 BELL @ CARK 76 - 84
Jan 8, 2026 CARK @ BELL 78 - 84
Jan 4, 2025 BELL @ CARK 65 - 71
Feb 22, 2024 CARK @ BELL 65 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +17.9% more
Bellarmine: 17.9 vs Central Arkansas: 14.7
Free Throw % (L5) +11.4%
Bellarmine: 83.6% vs Central Arkansas: 72.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.7%
Bellarmine: 44.1% vs Central Arkansas: 35.4%
Field Goal % (L5) +7.3%
Bellarmine: 54.4% vs Central Arkansas: 47.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BELL Score 80.0 76
CARK Score 45.0 84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.4 / 44.1 41.0 / 52.0
Assists 14.7 / 17.9 22.0 / 20.0
Blocks 2.1 / 1.9 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 47.0 / 54.4 47.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 72.1 / 83.6 67.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 33.8 / 28.2 28.0 / 27.0
Steals 9.2 / 6.8 13.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 10.9 / 8.2 5.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BELL
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +1.7
CARK Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +5.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BELL
17-12-1 (58.6%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +1.7
CARK Advantage
19-10-3 (65.5%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +5.7
⚖️ Over/Under
BELL
20-10-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +9.2
CARK
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CARK
BELL
CARK
BELL
ML
67% 22-11
72% 23-9
70% 23-10
94% 29-2
ATS
61% 20-13
72% 23-9
70% 23-10
94% 29-2
TTL
50% 16-16-1
50% 16-16
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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