Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Fighting Hawks @ Coyotes UND @ SDAK

NORTH DAKOTA

FIGHTING HAWKSUND

14-13  |  Road

72
FINAL
Wed, Feb 11 • 8:00 PM ET
Sanford Coyote Sports Center
View Odds Details →

SOUTH DAKOTA

COYOTESSDAK

14-12  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
FIGHTING HAWKS
100%
📊
COYOTES
0%
FIGHTING HAWKS --
COYOTES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
180.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
SOUTH DAKOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (South Dakota)
Fighting HawksUND (-3.5) 0 CoyotesSDAK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Fighting Hawks Cover

15.9%

Coyotes Cover

84.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SDAK -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SDAK)

UND By 1-7 points

10.7%

UND By 8-14 points

3.3%

SDAK By 1-7 points

23.0%

SDAK By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
85
NORTH DAKOTA
95
SOUTH DAKOTA
Simulated Score
68
NORTH DAKOTA
72
SOUTH DAKOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Coyotes Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Coyotes Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Coyotes (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Coyotes (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o156.5 Loss
Proj Total: 180.0
D
Sim u156.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 11, 2026 UND @ SDAK 72 - 71
Jan 17, 2026 SDAK @ UND 80 - 96
Mar 1, 2025 UND @ SDAK 79 - 92
Jan 23, 2025 SDAK @ UND 102 - 93
Mar 2, 2024 SDAK @ UND 66 - 95
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +95.7% more
South Dakota: 10.4 vs North Dakota: 5.3
Assists (L5) +34.7% more
South Dakota: 12.8 vs North Dakota: 9.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.1%
South Dakota: 31.6% vs North Dakota: 27.5%
Blocks (L5) +28.4% more
North Dakota: 2.8 vs South Dakota: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UND Score 85.0 72
SDAK Score 95.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.6 / 27.5 16.0 / 38.0
Assists 12.8 / 9.5 20.0 / 5.0
Blocks 2.0 / 2.8 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.2 / 44.3 45.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 73.7 / 74.8 76.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 33.0 / 31.6 35.0 / 38.0
Steals 6.5 / 6.2 5.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 10.4 / 5.3 12.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
88%MONEY12%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UND Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
SDAK
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UND Advantage
21-11-0 (65.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
SDAK
16-13-0 (55.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UND
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +1.3
SDAK
12-17-0
O: 41.4% / U: 58.6% Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SDAK
UND
SDAK
UND
ML
70% 21-9
44% 15-19
63% 19-11
50% 17-17
ATS
70% 21-9
50% 17-17
63% 19-11
50% 17-17
TTL
67% 20-10
65% 22-12
100% 30-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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