THE CITADEL
BULLDOGSCIT
9-16 | Road
49
WESTERN CAROLINA
CATAMOUNTSWCU
8-15 | Home
87
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
CATAMOUNTS
0%
BULLDOGS
--
CATAMOUNTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
158.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-48.0
WESTERN CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +48.0 points (Western Carolina)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WCU -48.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WCU)
CIT By 1-7 points
0.0%
CIT By 8-14 points
0.0%
WCU By 1-7 points
0.0%
WCU By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
The Citadel
55
THE CITADEL
Western Carolina
103
WESTERN CAROLINA
Simulated Score
The Citadel
70
THE CITADEL
Western Carolina
75
WESTERN CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Catamounts
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Catamounts
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Catamounts (-9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -48.0
D
Sim
Catamounts (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o145.5
Loss
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Sim
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 11, 2026
CIT @ WCU
49 - 87
Jan 10, 2026
WCU @ CIT
77 - 79
Feb 15, 2025
CIT @ WCU
73 - 76
Jan 25, 2025
WCU @ CIT
80 - 78
Feb 7, 2024
CIT @ WCU
64 - 71
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.1%
Western Carolina: 33.4%
vs
The Citadel: 31.3%
Steals (L5)
+19.7% more
The Citadel: 7.3
vs
Western Carolina: 5.9
Assists (L5)
+14.9% more
The Citadel: 13.8
vs
Western Carolina: 11.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIT Score
55.0
49
WCU Score
103.0
87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.4 / 31.3
48.0 / 22.0
Assists
11.8 / 13.8
16.0 / 2.0
Blocks
2.9 / 2.9
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
43.2 / 44.5
56.0 / 29.0
Free Throw %
64.8 / 66.1
55.0 / 93.0
Rebounding
34.8 / 33.8
42.0 / 26.0
Steals
5.9 / 7.3
8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
9.9 / 9.5
8.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIT
11-22-0
(33.3%)
Margin: -7.2
ATS +/-: -0.2
WCU
Advantage
15-16-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIT
Advantage
15-15-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -7.2
ATS +/-: -0.2
WCU
14-15-0
(48.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
CIT
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +2.9
WCU
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WCU
CIT
WCU
CIT
ML
63%
19-11
59%
19-13
76%
22-7
62%
20-12
ATS
73%
22-8
62%
20-12
77%
23-7
64%
21-12
TTL
67%
20-10
53%
17-15
100%
30-0
100%
33-0
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