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WASHINGTON STATE

COUGARSWSU

11-15  |  Road

53
FINAL
Tue, Feb 10 • 11:00 PM ET
McCarthey Athletic Center
View Odds Details →

GONZAGA

BULLDOGSGONZ

23-2  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
COUGARS
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
COUGARS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
104.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-30.0
GONZAGA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +30.0 points (Gonzaga)
CougarsWSU (-3.5) 0 BulldogsGONZ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cougars Cover

0.1%

Bulldogs Cover

99.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GONZ -30.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GONZ)

WSU By 1-7 points

0.1%

WSU By 8-14 points

0.0%

GONZ By 1-7 points

1.1%

GONZ By 8-14 points

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
37
WASHINGTON STATE
67
GONZAGA
Simulated Score
85
WASHINGTON STATE
78
GONZAGA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cougars Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs (-21.5) Win
Proj Spread: -30.0
D
Sim Cougars (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u156.5 Win
Proj Total: 104.0
D
Sim u156.5 Win
Proj Total: 163.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 10, 2026 WSU @ GONZ 53 - 83
Jan 15, 2026 GONZ @ WSU 86 - 65
Feb 19, 2025 GONZ @ WSU 84 - 63
Jan 11, 2025 WSU @ GONZ 75 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +28.9% more
Gonzaga: 7.2 vs Washington State: 5.6
Turnovers (L5) +41.8% more
Washington State: 11.8 vs Gonzaga: 6.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +13.8%
Washington State: 44.3% vs Gonzaga: 30.5%
Free Throw % (L5) +6.8%
Washington State: 79.1% vs Gonzaga: 72.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSU Score 37.0 53
GONZ Score 67.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.5 / 44.3 23.0 / 21.0
Assists 17.2 / 16.8 15.0 / 7.0
Blocks 3.4 / 3.2 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 49.0 / 48.8 55.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 72.3 / 79.1 86.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 33.8 / 34.5 37.0 / 21.0
Steals 7.2 / 5.6 13.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 6.9 / 11.8 12.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
GONZ Advantage
31-4-0 (88.6%)
Margin: 18.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSU
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
GONZ Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 18.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
WSU
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +2.0
GONZ
10-25-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GONZ
WSU
GONZ
WSU
ML
71% 25-10
78% 25-7
69% 20-9
69% 20-9
ATS
69% 24-11
78% 25-7
69% 20-9
69% 20-9
TTL
57% 20-15
62% 20-12
100% 29-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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