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BYU

COUGARSBYU

17-6  |  Road

99
FINAL
Tue, Feb 10 • 7:00 PM ET
Foster Pavilion
View Odds Details →

BAYLOR

BEARSBAY

13-10  |  Home

94
AI Model Win Probability
COUGARS
0%
📊
BEARS
100%
COUGARS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
192.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
BAYLOR
Book Spread
--
Book Line
CougarsBYU (-3.5) 0 BearsBAY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cougars Cover

42.1%

Bears Cover

57.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BAY +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAY)

BYU By 1-7 points

26.8%

BYU By 8-14 points

18.6%

BAY By 1-7 points

23.0%

BAY By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
97
BYU
95
BAYLOR
Simulated Score
72
BYU
75
BAYLOR
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cougars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bears (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o158.5 Win
Proj Total: 192.0
D
Sim u158.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 10, 2026 BYU @ BAY 99 - 94
Jan 28, 2025 BAY @ BYU 89 - 93
Feb 20, 2024 BAY @ BYU 71 - 78
Jan 9, 2024 BYU @ BAY 72 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +19.1% more
BYU: 4.5 vs Baylor: 3.6
Rebounding (L5) +14.2% more
BYU: 36.8 vs Baylor: 31.5
Steals (L5) +59.6% more
Baylor: 6.9 vs BYU: 4.3
Turnovers (L5) +9.4% more
Baylor: 10.8 vs BYU: 9.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BYU Score 97.0 99
BAY Score 95.0 94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.2 / 36.8 48.0 / 16.0
Assists 13.3 / 12.5 16.0 / 12.0
Blocks 3.6 / 4.5 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 46.6 / 44.4 52.0 / 56.0
Free Throw % 70.6 / 67.6 80.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 31.5 / 36.8 34.0 / 33.0
Steals 6.9 / 4.3 2.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 10.8 / 9.9 13.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
93%MONEY7%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
82%MONEY18%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BYU Advantage
23-12-0 (65.7%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: -1.9
BAY
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BYU Advantage
16-19-0 (45.7%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: -1.9
BAY
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
BYU
17-18-0
O: 48.6% / U: 51.4% Total +/-: +0.1
BAY
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAY
BYU
BAY
BYU
ML
58% 19-14
60% 21-14
53% 17-15
72% 23-9
ATS
58% 19-14
54% 19-16
53% 17-15
72% 23-9
TTL
45% 15-18
69% 24-11
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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