WISCONSIN
BADGERSWIS
16-7 | Road
92
ILLINOIS
FIGHTING ILLINIILL
20-4 | Home
90
AI Model Win Probability
BADGERS
100%
FIGHTING ILLINI
0%
BADGERS
--
FIGHTING ILLINI
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Illinois)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ILL -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILL)
WIS By 1-7 points
1.1%
WIS By 8-14 points
0.1%
ILL By 1-7 points
5.8%
ILL By 8-14 points
15.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Wisconsin
67
WISCONSIN
Illinois
89
ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
Wisconsin
70
WISCONSIN
Illinois
75
ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Fighting Illini
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Fighting Illini
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Fighting Illini (-10.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim
Fighting Illini (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o154.5
Win
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 13, 2026
WIS @ ILL
91 - 88
Feb 10, 2026
WIS @ ILL
92 - 90
Feb 18, 2025
ILL @ WIS
74 - 95
Dec 10, 2024
WIS @ ILL
80 - 86
Mar 17, 2024
WIS @ ILL
87 - 93
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+33.7% more
Illinois: 4.1
vs
Wisconsin: 3.1
Rebounding (L5)
+14.3% more
Illinois: 40.8
vs
Wisconsin: 35.7
Steals (L5)
+21.5% more
Wisconsin: 4.1
vs
Illinois: 3.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.8%
Wisconsin: 84.8%
vs
Illinois: 79.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WIS Score
67.0
92
ILL Score
89.0
90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.0 / 35.2
45.0 / 44.0
Assists
14.9 / 15.4
15.0 / 17.0
Blocks
4.1 / 3.1
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
42.8 / 43.0
53.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
79.0 / 84.8
58.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
40.8 / 35.7
38.0 / 35.0
Steals
3.2 / 4.1
0.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
7.3 / 7.6
13.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WIS
24-11-0
(68.6%)
Margin: 6.9
ATS +/-: +1.1
ILL
Advantage
28-9-0
(75.7%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WIS
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.9
ATS +/-: +1.1
ILL
Advantage
22-15-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
WIS
22-13-0
O: 62.9% / U: 37.1%
Total +/-: +3.5
ILL
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5%
Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILL
WIS
ILL
WIS
ML
65%
24-13
60%
21-14
57%
20-15
69%
24-11
ATS
70%
26-11
51%
18-17
57%
20-15
69%
24-11
TTL
57%
21-16
57%
20-15
100%
35-0
100%
35-0
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