Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Commodores @ Tigers VAN @ AUB

VANDERBILT

COMMODORESVAN

19-4  |  Road

84
FINAL
Tue, Feb 10 • 7:00 PM ET
Neville Arena
View Odds Details →

AUBURN

TIGERSAUB

14-9  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
COMMODORES
0%
📊
TIGERS
100%
COMMODORES --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-35.0
VANDERBILT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +35.0 points (Vanderbilt)
CommodoresVAN (-3.5) 0 TigersAUB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Commodores Cover

100.0%

Tigers Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around VAN -35.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VAN)

VAN By 1-7 points

0.3%

VAN By 8-14 points

1.7%

AUB By 1-7 points

0.0%

AUB By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
90
VANDERBILT
55
AUBURN
Simulated Score
62
VANDERBILT
78
AUBURN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Commodores Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Commodores (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
D
Sim Tigers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u161.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u161.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 10, 2026 VAN @ AUB 84 - 76
Feb 11, 2025 AUB @ VAN 80 - 68
Jan 31, 2024 VAN @ AUB 54 - 81
Jan 17, 2024 AUB @ VAN 80 - 65
Feb 18, 2023 AUB @ VAN 65 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +31.3% more
Vanderbilt: 10.6 vs Auburn: 7.3
Blocks (L5) +27.1% more
Vanderbilt: 4.3 vs Auburn: 3.1
Assists (L5) +17.3% more
Vanderbilt: 13.6 vs Auburn: 11.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.4%
Vanderbilt: 36.4% vs Auburn: 31.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VAN Score 90.0 84
AUB Score 55.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.0 / 36.4 41.0 / 35.0
Assists 11.3 / 13.6 9.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.1 / 4.3 3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 44.8 / 45.3 40.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 76.1 / 80.2 78.0 / 87.0
Rebounding 32.6 / 33.7 36.0 / 27.0
Steals 8.5 / 7.4 2.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 7.3 / 10.6 8.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VAN Advantage
27-9-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
AUB
22-16-0 (57.9%)
Margin: 4.2 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VAN Advantage
18-18-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
AUB
15-23-0 (39.5%)
Margin: 4.2 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
VAN
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8% Total +/-: +1.3
AUB
22-16-0
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +4.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AUB
VAN
AUB
VAN
ML
58% 22-16
69% 25-11
75% 24-8
56% 18-14
ATS
74% 28-10
78% 28-8
75% 24-8
56% 18-14
TTL
53% 20-18
58% 21-15
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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