NORTH CAROLINA
TAR HEELSUNC
19-4 | Road
66
MIAMI
HURRICANESMIA
18-5 | Home
75
AI Model Win Probability
TAR HEELS
0%
HURRICANES
100%
TAR HEELS
--
HURRICANES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
164.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-38.0
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +38.0 points (North Carolina)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNC -38.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNC)
UNC By 1-7 points
0.1%
UNC By 8-14 points
0.8%
MIA By 1-7 points
0.0%
MIA By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
North Carolina
101
NORTH CAROLINA
Miami
63
MIAMI
Simulated Score
North Carolina
65
NORTH CAROLINA
Miami
76
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tar Heels
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hurricanes
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tar Heels (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -38.0
D
Sim
Hurricanes (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o156.5
Loss
Proj Total: 164.0
D
Sim
u156.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 10, 2026
UNC @ MIA
66 - 75
Mar 1, 2025
MIA @ UNC
73 - 92
Feb 26, 2024
MIA @ UNC
71 - 75
Feb 10, 2024
UNC @ MIA
75 - 72
Feb 13, 2023
MIA @ UNC
80 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.9%
North Carolina: 75.5%
vs
Miami: 64.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.3%
North Carolina: 39.2%
vs
Miami: 35.0%
Turnovers (L5)
+51.7% more
Miami: 11.3
vs
North Carolina: 7.4
Blocks (L5)
+19.2% more
Miami: 3.5
vs
North Carolina: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UNC Score
101.0
66
MIA Score
63.0
75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.0 / 39.2
23.0 / 30.0
Assists
14.3 / 14.6
15.0 / 16.0
Blocks
3.5 / 3.0
5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
51.9 / 48.0
47.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
64.6 / 75.5
61.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
37.3 / 33.9
41.0 / 35.0
Steals
5.8 / 5.5
7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
11.3 / 7.4
8.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNC
24-9-0
(72.7%)
Margin: 8.1
ATS +/-: +0.5
MIA
Advantage
26-9-0
(74.3%)
Margin: 10.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNC
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 8.1
ATS +/-: +0.5
MIA
18-15-1
(54.6%)
Margin: 10.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UNC
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6%
Total +/-: -2.2
MIA
21-12-1
O: 63.6% / U: 36.4%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
UNC
MIA
UNC
ML
63%
22-13
76%
25-8
64%
21-12
69%
22-10
ATS
63%
22-13
73%
24-9
64%
21-12
69%
22-10
TTL
63%
22-13
55%
18-15
100%
33-0
100%
32-0
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