Home / NBA Projections NBA / Thunder @ Lakers OKC @ LAL

OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

40-13  |  Road

119
FINAL
Mon, Feb 9 • 10:00 PM ET
crypto.com Arena
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

32-19  |  Home

110
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
📊
LAKERS
100%
THUNDER --
LAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
206.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Oklahoma City)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 LakersLAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

84.1%

Lakers Cover

15.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

OKC By 1-7 points

23.0%

OKC By 8-14 points

27.2%

LAL By 1-7 points

10.7%

LAL By 8-14 points

3.3%

AI Model Projected Score
108
OKLAHOMA CITY
98
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
114
OKLAHOMA CITY
118
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lakers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Thunder (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Lakers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u221.5 Loss
Proj Total: 206.0
D
Sim u221.5 Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 11, 2026 OKC @ LAL 115 - 110
May 9, 2026 OKC @ LAL 131 - 108
May 7, 2026 LAL @ OKC 107 - 125
May 5, 2026 LAL @ OKC 90 - 108
Apr 7, 2026 OKC @ LAL 123 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +12.4% more
Oklahoma City: 10.0 vs Los Angeles: 8.8
Free Throw % (L5) +3.0%
Oklahoma City: 78.2% vs Los Angeles: 75.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +1.9%
Oklahoma City: 37.5% vs Los Angeles: 35.6%
Turnovers (L5) +27.1% more
Los Angeles: 18.3 vs Oklahoma City: 14.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 108.0 119
LAL Score 98.0 110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.6 / 37.5 32.0 / 42.0
Assists 27.1 / 26.1 25.0 / 23.0
Blocks 5.4 / 4.7 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 52.4 / 45.5 50.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 75.2 / 78.2 70.0 / 72.0
Rebounding 41.0 / 44.0 37.0 / 45.0
Steals 8.8 / 10.0 7.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 18.3 / 14.4 15.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
60%MONEY40%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
LAL
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
OKC
LAL
OKC
ML
61% 68-43
70% 80-34
54% 49-42
48% 46-49
ATS
61% 67-43-1
73% 83-30-1
54% 49-42
48% 46-49
TTL
61% 66-43-2
67% 76-38
100% 91-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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