ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
26-28 | Road
116
MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
32-22 | Home
138
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
100%
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
HAWKS
--
TIMBERWOLVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
210.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIN -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
ATL By 1-7 points
2.7%
ATL By 8-14 points
0.5%
MIN By 1-7 points
10.7%
MIN By 8-14 points
21.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
96
ATLANTA
Minnesota
114
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Atlanta
110
ATLANTA
Minnesota
115
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Timberwolves
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Timberwolves
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Timberwolves (-10)
Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim
Timberwolves (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u236.5
Loss
Proj Total: 210.0
D
Sim
u236.5
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 9, 2026
ATL @ MIN
116 - 138
Dec 31, 2025
MIN @ ATL
102 - 126
Jan 27, 2025
ATL @ MIN
92 - 100
Dec 23, 2024
MIN @ ATL
104 - 117
Apr 12, 2024
ATL @ MIN
106 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+43.3% more
Minnesota: 14.9
vs
Atlanta: 10.4
Rebounding (L5)
+8.3% more
Minnesota: 44.0
vs
Atlanta: 40.6
Assists (L5)
+27.6% more
Atlanta: 30.4
vs
Minnesota: 22.0
Blocks (L5)
+13.1% more
Atlanta: 5.7
vs
Minnesota: 4.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
96.0
116
MIN Score
114.0
138
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.5 / 39.1
38.0 / 31.0
Assists
22.0 / 30.4
36.0 / 20.0
Blocks
4.9 / 5.7
9.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
46.4 / 47.9
60.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
70.5 / 78.2
57.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
44.0 / 40.6
41.0 / 47.0
Steals
8.1 / 7.5
10.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
14.9 / 10.4
15.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
MIN
Advantage
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
MIN
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
ATL
MIN
ATL
ML
54%
63-53
50%
52-52
54%
50-43
55%
48-40
ATS
58%
67-49
53%
55-48-1
54%
50-43
55%
48-40
TTL
63%
72-43-1
53%
55-48-1
100%
93-0
100%
88-0
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