Home / NBA Projections NBA / Grizzlies @ Warriors MEM @ GS

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

20-31  |  Road

113
FINAL
Mon, Feb 9 • 10:00 PM ET
Chase Center
View Odds Details →

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

28-25  |  Home

114
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
0%
📊
WARRIORS
100%
GRIZZLIES --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
234.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Memphis)
GrizzliesMEM (-3.5) 0 WarriorsGS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

84.1%

Warriors Cover

15.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MEM -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)

MEM By 1-7 points

23.0%

MEM By 8-14 points

27.2%

GS By 1-7 points

10.7%

GS By 8-14 points

3.3%

AI Model Projected Score
122
MEMPHIS
112
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
108
MEMPHIS
115
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Grizzlies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Warriors Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Grizzlies (-9) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Warriors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o219.0 Win
Proj Total: 234.0
D
Sim u219.0 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 25, 2026 GS @ MEM 133 - 112
Feb 9, 2026 MEM @ GS 113 - 114
Oct 27, 2025 MEM @ GS 118 - 131
Apr 15, 2025 MEM @ GS 116 - 121
Apr 1, 2025 GS @ MEM 134 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +7.6%
Memphis: 75.7% vs Golden State: 68.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.8%
Memphis: 39.2% vs Golden State: 33.4%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.7%
Memphis: 48.7% vs Golden State: 44.0%
Steals (L5) +12.3% more
Golden State: 12.1 vs Memphis: 10.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 122.0 113
GS Score 112.0 114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.4 / 39.2 33.0 / 31.0
Assists 26.7 / 25.6 31.0 / 26.0
Blocks 4.3 / 4.5 1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.0 / 48.7 53.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 68.1 / 75.7 79.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 39.7 / 39.7 40.0 / 37.0
Steals 12.1 / 10.7 12.0 / 17.0
Turnovers 15.7 / 14.6 23.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
64%MONEY36%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
GS Advantage
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM Advantage
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
MEM
GS
MEM
ML
55% 95-79
57% 59-44
58% 49-35
50% 41-41
ATS
58% 101-73
63% 65-38
58% 49-35
50% 41-41
TTL
77% 134-40
70% 71-31-1
100% 84-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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