CENTRAL ARKANSAS
BEARSCARK
14-10 | Road
72
NORTH ALABAMA
LIONSUNA
7-15 | Home
65
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
LIONS
0%
BEARS
--
LIONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
NORTH ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (North Alabama)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNA -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNA)
CARK By 1-7 points
3.3%
CARK By 8-14 points
0.6%
UNA By 1-7 points
12.2%
UNA By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Central Arkansas
63
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
North Alabama
80
NORTH ALABAMA
Simulated Score
Central Arkansas
73
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
North Alabama
81
NORTH ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Lions
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lions
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Lions (+6.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim
Lions (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 9, 2026
CARK @ UNA
72 - 65
Feb 4, 2026
UNA @ CARK
60 - 81
Feb 24, 2025
UNA @ CARK
93 - 70
Feb 1, 2025
CARK @ UNA
65 - 94
Mar 1, 2024
UNA @ CARK
82 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+54.3% more
North Alabama: 4.1
vs
Central Arkansas: 2.7
Turnovers (L5)
+21.9% more
North Alabama: 11.9
vs
Central Arkansas: 9.8
Assists (L5)
+37.8% more
Central Arkansas: 16.5
vs
North Alabama: 10.3
Steals (L5)
+21.8% more
Central Arkansas: 8.7
vs
North Alabama: 6.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CARK Score
63.0
72
UNA Score
80.0
65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
26.9 / 37.6
31.0 / 31.0
Assists
10.3 / 16.5
12.0 / 11.0
Blocks
4.1 / 2.7
2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
42.9 / 48.5
48.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
68.1 / 71.2
74.0 / 74.0
Rebounding
31.6 / 36.7
31.0 / 28.0
Steals
6.8 / 8.7
8.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
11.9 / 9.8
19.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CARK
Advantage
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +5.7
UNA
9-21-0
(30.0%)
Margin: -8.2
ATS +/-: -4.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CARK
Advantage
19-10-3
(65.5%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +5.7
UNA
10-17-1
(37.0%)
Margin: -8.2
ATS +/-: -4.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CARK
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +3.9
UNA
12-16-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNA
CARK
UNA
CARK
ML
43%
13-17
67%
22-11
57%
16-12
70%
23-10
ATS
60%
18-12
61%
20-13
57%
16-12
70%
23-10
TTL
63%
19-11
50%
16-16-1
100%
28-0
100%
33-0
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