NAVY
MIDSHIPMENNAVY
19-6 | Road
76
BUCKNELL
BISONBUCK
8-17 | Home
60
AI Model Win Probability
MIDSHIPMEN
0%
BISON
100%
MIDSHIPMEN
--
BISON
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
126.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
BUCKNELL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BUCK +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUCK)
NAVY By 1-7 points
26.8%
NAVY By 8-14 points
18.6%
BUCK By 1-7 points
23.0%
BUCK By 8-14 points
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Navy
64
NAVY
Bucknell
62
BUCKNELL
Simulated Score
Navy
68
NAVY
Bucknell
72
BUCKNELL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Midshipmen
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bison
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bison (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim
Bison (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u134.5
Loss
Proj Total: 126.0
D
Sim
u134.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 5, 2026
BUCK @ NAVY
69 - 74
Feb 9, 2026
NAVY @ BUCK
76 - 60
Jan 7, 2026
BUCK @ NAVY
55 - 76
Mar 9, 2025
NAVY @ BUCK
83 - 77
Feb 1, 2025
BUCK @ NAVY
85 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+38.7% more
Navy: 3.1
vs
Bucknell: 1.9
Assists (L5)
+32.1% more
Navy: 19.0
vs
Bucknell: 12.9
Steals (L5)
+26.0% more
Navy: 8.2
vs
Bucknell: 6.1
Field Goal % (L5)
+12.2%
Navy: 53.6%
vs
Bucknell: 41.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NAVY Score
64.0
76
BUCK Score
62.0
60
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.6 / 34.5
19.0 / 29.0
Assists
12.9 / 19.0
14.0 / 19.0
Blocks
1.9 / 3.1
3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
41.4 / 53.6
37.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
79.7 / 71.9
100.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
33.0 / 33.9
28.0 / 45.0
Steals
6.1 / 8.2
10.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
11.8 / 10.0
11.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NAVY
Advantage
26-8-0
(76.5%)
Margin: 10.3
ATS +/-: +3.7
BUCK
10-23-0
(30.3%)
Margin: -8.9
ATS +/-: -3.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NAVY
Advantage
20-11-1
(64.5%)
Margin: 10.3
ATS +/-: +3.7
BUCK
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: -8.9
ATS +/-: -3.9
⚖️ Over/Under
NAVY
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1%
Total +/-: -1.3
BUCK
13-20-0
O: 39.4% / U: 60.6%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUCK
NAVY
BUCK
NAVY
ML
55%
18-15
79%
26-7
64%
21-12
55%
18-15
ATS
45%
15-18
73%
24-9
64%
21-12
55%
18-15
TTL
61%
20-13
73%
24-9
100%
33-0
100%
33-0
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