UNC WILMINGTON
SEAHAWKSUNCW
19-4 | Road
76
CHARLESTON
COUGARSCOFC
16-8 | Home
64
AI Model Win Probability
SEAHAWKS
100%
COUGARS
0%
SEAHAWKS
--
COUGARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-30.0
CHARLESTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +30.0 points (Charleston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around COFC -30.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COFC)
UNCW By 1-7 points
0.1%
UNCW By 8-14 points
0.0%
COFC By 1-7 points
1.1%
COFC By 8-14 points
4.8%
AI Model Projected Score
UNC Wilmington
61
UNC WILMINGTON
Charleston
91
CHARLESTON
Simulated Score
UNC Wilmington
75
UNC WILMINGTON
Charleston
78
CHARLESTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cougars
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cougars
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cougars (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -30.0
D
Sim
Cougars (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o148.5
Loss
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 1, 2026
COFC @ UNCW
79 - 76
Feb 9, 2026
UNCW @ COFC
76 - 64
Mar 10, 2025
COFC @ UNCW
67 - 68
Feb 13, 2025
COFC @ UNCW
66 - 86
Jan 23, 2025
UNCW @ COFC
85 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+141.1% more
Charleston: 4.9
vs
UNC Wilmington: 2.0
Steals (L5)
+46.9% more
Charleston: 6.6
vs
UNC Wilmington: 4.5
Turnovers (L5)
+20.3% more
Charleston: 11.2
vs
UNC Wilmington: 9.3
Rebounding (L5)
+11.3% more
Charleston: 36.9
vs
UNC Wilmington: 33.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UNCW Score
61.0
76
COFC Score
91.0
64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
26.8 / 38.4
26.0 / 33.0
Assists
14.7 / 14.5
6.0 / 10.0
Blocks
4.9 / 2.0
2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
49.8 / 47.7
40.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
70.8 / 65.7
83.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
36.9 / 33.2
37.0 / 39.0
Steals
6.6 / 4.5
3.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
11.2 / 9.3
13.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNCW
Advantage
27-7-0
(79.4%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +0.2
COFC
21-11-0
(65.6%)
Margin: 2.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNCW
16-14-2
(53.3%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +0.2
COFC
Advantage
19-12-0
(61.3%)
Margin: 2.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
UNCW
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8%
Total +/-: -2.3
COFC
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1%
Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COFC
UNCW
COFC
UNCW
ML
66%
19-10
64%
21-12
62%
18-11
52%
17-16
ATS
59%
17-12
58%
19-14
62%
18-11
52%
17-16
TTL
68%
19-9-1
61%
20-13
100%
29-0
100%
33-0
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