Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Salukis @ Sycamores SIU @ INST

SOUTHERN ILLINOIS

SALUKISSIU

10-14  |  Road

80
FINAL
Mon, Feb 9 • 7:00 PM ET
Hulman Center
View Odds Details →

INDIANA STATE

SYCAMORESINST

10-14  |  Home

65
AI Model Win Probability
SALUKIS
0%
📊
SYCAMORES
100%
SALUKIS --
SYCAMORES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
170.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Southern Illinois)
SalukisSIU (-3.5) 0 SycamoresINST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Salukis Cover

72.6%

Sycamores Cover

27.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SIU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SIU)

SIU By 1-7 points

26.8%

SIU By 8-14 points

24.3%

INST By 1-7 points

16.9%

INST By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
88
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
82
INDIANA STATE
Simulated Score
72
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
78
INDIANA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Salukis Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Sycamores Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Salukis (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Sycamores (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o146.5 Loss
Proj Total: 170.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 25, 2026 INST @ SIU 55 - 66
Feb 9, 2026 SIU @ INST 80 - 65
Mar 6, 2025 INST @ SIU 85 - 86
Mar 2, 2025 SIU @ INST 77 - 95
Feb 17, 2024 INST @ SIU 69 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +27.3% more
Southern Illinois: 8.0 vs Indiana State: 5.8
Free Throw % (L5) +12.9%
Southern Illinois: 70.8% vs Indiana State: 57.9%
Assists (L5) +75.1% more
Indiana State: 21.0 vs Southern Illinois: 12.0
Turnovers (L5) +26.4% more
Indiana State: 13.2 vs Southern Illinois: 10.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SIU Score 88.0 80
INST Score 82.0 65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.9 / 25.6 28.0 / 31.0
Assists 21.0 / 12.0 18.0 / 15.0
Blocks 4.0 / 3.4 5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 50.2 / 43.0 41.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 57.9 / 70.8 67.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 35.3 / 33.2 34.0 / 43.0
Steals 5.8 / 8.0 9.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 13.2 / 10.5 17.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
55%MONEY45%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
75%MONEY25%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SIU Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.4 ATS +/-: +1.7
INST
11-21-0 (34.4%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SIU
16-15-0 (51.6%)
Margin: 3.4 ATS +/-: +1.7
INST Advantage
17-12-1 (58.6%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SIU
9-22-0
O: 29.0% / U: 71.0% Total +/-: -5.5
INST
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7% Total +/-: -3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
INST
SIU
INST
SIU
ML
66% 21-11
53% 17-15
53% 17-15
47% 15-17
ATS
62% 20-12
56% 18-14
53% 17-15
47% 15-17
TTL
53% 17-15
53% 17-15
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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