UCF
KNIGHTSUCF
17-5 | Road
72
CINCINNATI
BEARCATSCIN
11-12 | Home
92
AI Model Win Probability
KNIGHTS
100%
BEARCATS
0%
KNIGHTS
--
BEARCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
183.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CIN -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
UCF By 1-7 points
3.3%
UCF By 8-14 points
0.6%
CIN By 1-7 points
12.2%
CIN By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
UCF
83
UCF
Cincinnati
100
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
UCF
69
UCF
Cincinnati
74
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bearcats
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bearcats
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bearcats (-4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim
Bearcats (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o146.5
Win
Proj Total: 183.0
D
Sim
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 11, 2026
CIN @ UCF
65 - 66
Feb 8, 2026
UCF @ CIN
72 - 92
Jan 11, 2026
CIN @ UCF
72 - 73
Apr 3, 2025
UCF @ CIN
88 - 80
Feb 5, 2025
CIN @ UCF
93 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+85.1% more
Cincinnati: 3.2
vs
UCF: 1.7
Turnovers (L5)
+26.3% more
Cincinnati: 13.0
vs
UCF: 10.3
Steals (L5)
+13.5% more
Cincinnati: 4.9
vs
UCF: 4.3
Assists (L5)
+11.3% more
UCF: 14.6
vs
Cincinnati: 13.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UCF Score
83.0
72
CIN Score
100.0
92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.8 / 37.6
61.0 / 26.0
Assists
13.0 / 14.6
18.0 / 11.0
Blocks
3.2 / 1.7
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
38.4 / 42.5
59.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
73.1 / 79.7
71.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
35.3 / 33.4
37.0 / 31.0
Steals
4.9 / 4.3
3.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
13.0 / 10.3
11.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCF
Advantage
21-12-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.2
CIN
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCF
Advantage
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.2
CIN
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UCF
13-20-0
O: 39.4% / U: 60.6%
Total +/-: +1.2
CIN
12-21-0
O: 36.4% / U: 63.6%
Total +/-: -4.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
UCF
CIN
UCF
ML
67%
22-11
55%
18-15
74%
23-8
65%
20-11
ATS
64%
21-12
55%
18-15
74%
23-8
65%
20-11
TTL
67%
22-11
61%
20-13
100%
31-0
100%
31-0
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