MERCYHURST
LAKERSMERC
12-12 | Road
52
FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
KNIGHTSFDU
8-16 | Home
55
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
100%
KNIGHTS
0%
LAKERS
--
KNIGHTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-48.0
FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +48.0 points (Fairleigh Dickinson)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FDU -48.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FDU)
MERC By 1-7 points
0.0%
MERC By 8-14 points
0.0%
FDU By 1-7 points
0.0%
FDU By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Mercyhurst
48
MERCYHURST
Fairleigh Dickinson
96
FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
Simulated Score
Mercyhurst
65
MERCYHURST
Fairleigh Dickinson
78
FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Knights
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Knights
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Knights (-2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -48.0
D
Sim
Knights (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o131.0
Loss
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim
u131.0
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 4, 2026
FDU @ MERC
61 - 70
Feb 7, 2026
MERC @ FDU
52 - 55
Jan 2, 2026
FDU @ MERC
74 - 67
Feb 20, 2025
FDU @ MERC
60 - 65
Feb 1, 2025
MERC @ FDU
67 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+77.0% more
Mercyhurst: 3.7
vs
Fairleigh Dickinson: 0.9
Assists (L5)
+38.1% more
Mercyhurst: 19.8
vs
Fairleigh Dickinson: 12.2
Turnovers (L5)
+14.3% more
Mercyhurst: 10.0
vs
Fairleigh Dickinson: 8.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.1%
Mercyhurst: 79.2%
vs
Fairleigh Dickinson: 73.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MERC Score
48.0
52
FDU Score
96.0
55
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.9 / 35.3
20.0 / 26.0
Assists
12.2 / 19.8
9.0 / 6.0
Blocks
0.9 / 3.7
1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
43.8 / 47.1
43.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
73.1 / 79.2
85.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
35.3 / 37.2
35.0 / 23.0
Steals
6.3 / 6.5
5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
8.6 / 10.0
13.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MERC
Advantage
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 2.0
ATS +/-: +2.4
FDU
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MERC
Advantage
21-11-0
(65.6%)
Margin: 2.0
ATS +/-: +2.4
FDU
10-18-1
(35.7%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MERC
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.7
FDU
9-20-0
O: 31.0% / U: 69.0%
Total +/-: -2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FDU
MERC
FDU
MERC
ML
65%
20-11
59%
20-14
74%
23-8
79%
26-7
ATS
68%
21-10
62%
21-13
74%
23-8
79%
26-7
TTL
58%
18-13
53%
18-16
100%
31-0
100%
33-0
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