UC IRVINE
ANTEATERSUCI
16-7 | Road
79
UC SANTA BARBARA
GAUCHOSUCSB
15-8 | Home
84
AI Model Win Probability
ANTEATERS
100%
GAUCHOS
0%
ANTEATERS
--
GAUCHOS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
160.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
UC SANTA BARBARA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (UC Santa Barbara)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCSB -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCSB)
UCI By 1-7 points
23.0%
UCI By 8-14 points
12.2%
UCSB By 1-7 points
26.8%
UCSB By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
UC Irvine
79
UC IRVINE
UC Santa Barbara
81
UC SANTA BARBARA
Simulated Score
UC Irvine
72
UC IRVINE
UC Santa Barbara
65
UC SANTA BARBARA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Gauchos
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Anteaters
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Gauchos (-1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Anteaters (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o141.5
Win
Proj Total: 160.0
D
Sim
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
UCSB @ UCI
60 - 64
Feb 7, 2026
UCI @ UCSB
79 - 84
Mar 8, 2025
UCI @ UCSB
97 - 88
Feb 13, 2025
UCSB @ UCI
60 - 62
Feb 22, 2024
UCSB @ UCI
69 - 81
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+15.5%
UC Santa Barbara: 36.5%
vs
UC Irvine: 20.9%
Turnovers (L5)
+11.8% more
UC Santa Barbara: 12.7
vs
UC Irvine: 11.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.5%
UC Santa Barbara: 75.8%
vs
UC Irvine: 65.3%
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.6%
UC Santa Barbara: 48.2%
vs
UC Irvine: 43.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UCI Score
79.0
79
UCSB Score
81.0
84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.5 / 20.9
30.0 / 36.0
Assists
16.0 / 14.9
11.0 / 14.0
Blocks
1.9 / 7.0
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
48.2 / 43.7
51.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
75.8 / 65.3
76.0 / 92.0
Rebounding
33.9 / 45.0
37.0 / 27.0
Steals
7.6 / 8.7
7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.7 / 11.4
14.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCI
Advantage
23-12-0
(65.7%)
Margin: 8.6
ATS +/-: +0.3
UCSB
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCI
Advantage
16-16-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 8.6
ATS +/-: +0.3
UCSB
13-17-0
(43.3%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UCI
12-21-0
O: 36.4% / U: 63.6%
Total +/-: -2.8
UCSB
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +3.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCSB
UCI
UCSB
UCI
ML
59%
19-13
57%
20-15
72%
23-9
53%
18-16
ATS
62%
20-12
63%
22-13
72%
23-9
53%
18-16
TTL
47%
15-17
57%
20-15
100%
32-0
100%
34-0
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