CHICAGO STATE
COUGARSCHST
3-20 | Road
63
NEW HAVEN
CHARGERSNHVN
10-13 | Home
57
AI Model Win Probability
COUGARS
100%
CHARGERS
0%
COUGARS
--
CHARGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-41.0
NEW HAVEN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +41.0 points (New Haven)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NHVN -41.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NHVN)
CHST By 1-7 points
0.0%
CHST By 8-14 points
0.0%
NHVN By 1-7 points
0.0%
NHVN By 8-14 points
0.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago State
60
CHICAGO STATE
New Haven
101
NEW HAVEN
Simulated Score
Chicago State
68
CHICAGO STATE
New Haven
75
NEW HAVEN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Chargers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Chargers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Chargers (-5.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -41.0
D
Sim
Chargers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o127.5
Loss
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim
u127.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 7, 2026
CHST @ NHVN
63 - 57
Jan 19, 2026
NHVN @ CHST
62 - 56
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+44.7% more
New Haven: 10.8
vs
Chicago State: 7.5
Blocks (L5)
+12.4% more
New Haven: 1.5
vs
Chicago State: 1.4
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.7%
New Haven: 45.7%
vs
Chicago State: 41.1%
Assists (L5)
+18.7% more
Chicago State: 13.7
vs
New Haven: 11.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHST Score
60.0
63
NHVN Score
101.0
57
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
25.9 / 35.2
39.0 / 31.0
Assists
11.1 / 13.7
16.0 / 9.0
Blocks
1.5 / 1.4
5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
45.7 / 41.1
41.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
69.1 / 72.3
67.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
29.7 / 27.9
28.0 / 34.0
Steals
5.8 / 7.0
2.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
10.8 / 7.5
11.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHST
7-25-0
(21.9%)
Margin: -10.3
ATS +/-: +0.4
NHVN
Advantage
14-17-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -1.4
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHST
15-15-1
(50.0%)
Margin: -10.3
ATS +/-: +0.4
NHVN
Advantage
15-13-0
(53.6%)
Margin: -1.4
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CHST
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6%
Total +/-: -0.5
NHVN
8-20-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4%
Total +/-: -3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NHVN
CHST
NHVN
CHST
ML
71%
22-9
75%
24-8
68%
21-10
73%
22-8
ATS
74%
23-8
69%
22-10
68%
21-10
73%
22-8
TTL
42%
13-18
44%
14-18
100%
31-0
100%
30-0
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