LONGWOOD
LANCERSLONG
13-12 | Road
74
WINTHROP
EAGLESWIN
17-8 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
LANCERS
100%
EAGLES
0%
LANCERS
--
EAGLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
176.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
WINTHROP
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Winthrop)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WIN -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WIN)
LONG By 1-7 points
10.7%
LONG By 8-14 points
3.3%
WIN By 1-7 points
23.0%
WIN By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Longwood
83
LONGWOOD
Winthrop
93
WINTHROP
Simulated Score
Longwood
69
LONGWOOD
Winthrop
74
WINTHROP
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Eagles
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Eagles
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Eagles (+10.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Eagles (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o152.5
Win
Proj Total: 176.0
D
Sim
u152.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 7, 2026
LONG @ WIN
74 - 79
Dec 31, 2025
WIN @ LONG
70 - 82
Mar 7, 2025
LONG @ WIN
79 - 88
Feb 27, 2025
WIN @ LONG
85 - 59
Jan 11, 2025
LONG @ WIN
76 - 95
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+32.6% more
Winthrop: 15.4
vs
Longwood: 11.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.2%
Winthrop: 72.9%
vs
Longwood: 66.7%
Steals (L5)
+26.8% more
Longwood: 9.3
vs
Winthrop: 6.8
Turnovers (L5)
+26.4% more
Longwood: 14.4
vs
Winthrop: 10.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LONG Score
83.0
74
WIN Score
93.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.2 / 34.1
21.0 / 24.0
Assists
15.4 / 11.6
13.0 / 8.0
Blocks
2.0 / 2.1
2.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
44.9 / 49.8
38.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
72.9 / 66.7
88.0 / 63.0
Rebounding
36.5 / 35.2
35.0 / 42.0
Steals
6.8 / 9.3
8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
10.6 / 14.4
14.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LONG
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 3.6
ATS +/-: +0.1
WIN
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 8.2
ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LONG
Advantage
13-16-0
(44.8%)
Margin: 3.6
ATS +/-: +0.1
WIN
12-19-0
(38.7%)
Margin: 8.2
ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
LONG
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4%
Total +/-: +2.7
WIN
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WIN
LONG
WIN
LONG
ML
70%
23-10
65%
20-11
79%
26-7
68%
21-10
ATS
79%
26-7
68%
21-10
79%
26-7
68%
21-10
TTL
58%
19-14
65%
20-11
100%
33-0
100%
31-0
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