Home / NBA Projections NBA / Warriors @ Lakers GS @ LAL

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

28-24  |  Road

99
FINAL
Sat, Feb 7 • 8:30 PM ET
crypto.com Arena
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

31-19  |  Home

105
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
100%
📊
LAKERS
0%
WARRIORS --
LAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
215.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Los Angeles)
WarriorsGS (-3.5) 0 LakersLAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

46.0%

Lakers Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LAL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAL)

GS By 1-7 points

24.3%

GS By 8-14 points

13.7%

LAL By 1-7 points

26.2%

LAL By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
107
GOLDEN STATE
108
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
114
GOLDEN STATE
118
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lakers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lakers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lakers (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Lakers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u220.0 Win
Proj Total: 215.0
D
Sim u220.0 Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 9, 2026 LAL @ GS 119 - 103
Feb 28, 2026 LAL @ GS 129 - 101
Feb 7, 2026 GS @ LAL 99 - 105
Oct 21, 2025 GS @ LAL 119 - 109
Oct 12, 2025 GS @ LAL 116 - 126
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5) +8.0%
Los Angeles: 53.1% vs Golden State: 45.0%
Free Throw % (L5) +2.6%
Los Angeles: 72.8% vs Golden State: 70.2%
Blocks (L5) +38.5% more
Golden State: 4.9 vs Los Angeles: 3.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.6%
Golden State: 36.5% vs Los Angeles: 32.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 107.0 99
LAL Score 108.0 105
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.9 / 36.5 41.0 / 27.0
Assists 26.1 / 27.6 29.0 / 25.0
Blocks 3.0 / 4.9 10.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 53.1 / 45.0 51.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 72.8 / 70.2 80.0 / 64.0
Rebounding 40.9 / 41.0 41.0 / 37.0
Steals 9.7 / 10.1 7.0 / 16.0
Turnovers 15.9 / 17.0 23.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
GS
LAL
GS
ML
61% 68-43
55% 95-79
54% 49-42
58% 49-35
ATS
61% 67-43-1
58% 101-73
54% 49-42
58% 49-35
TTL
61% 66-43-2
77% 134-40
100% 91-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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