SIU EDWARDSVILLE
COUGARSSIUE
15-9 | Road
71
LITTLE ROCK
TROJANSLR
9-15 | Home
61
AI Model Win Probability
COUGARS
100%
TROJANS
0%
COUGARS
--
TROJANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
LITTLE ROCK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Little Rock)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LR -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LR)
SIUE By 1-7 points
12.2%
SIUE By 8-14 points
4.0%
LR By 1-7 points
24.3%
LR By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
SIU Edwardsville
67
SIU EDWARDSVILLE
Little Rock
76
LITTLE ROCK
Simulated Score
SIU Edwardsville
72
SIU EDWARDSVILLE
Little Rock
75
LITTLE ROCK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Trojans
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Trojans
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Trojans (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Trojans (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o133.0
Loss
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim
u133.0
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 7, 2026
SIUE @ LR
71 - 61
Jan 8, 2026
LR @ SIUE
73 - 70
Mar 1, 2025
LR @ SIUE
65 - 73
Dec 19, 2024
SIUE @ LR
56 - 60
Feb 1, 2024
LR @ SIUE
66 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+33.4% more
Little Rock: 9.2
vs
SIU Edwardsville: 6.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.8%
Little Rock: 75.3%
vs
SIU Edwardsville: 69.5%
Turnovers (L5)
+10.8% more
SIU Edwardsville: 12.6
vs
Little Rock: 11.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+9.0%
SIU Edwardsville: 37.8%
vs
Little Rock: 28.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SIUE Score
67.0
71
LR Score
76.0
61
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.8 / 37.8
38.0 / 38.0
Assists
12.5 / 12.5
6.0 / 14.0
Blocks
4.1 / 4.1
5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
44.5 / 46.3
32.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
75.3 / 69.5
70.0 / 87.0
Rebounding
32.1 / 35.0
41.0 / 39.0
Steals
9.2 / 6.9
3.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
11.3 / 12.6
7.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SIUE
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 6.3
ATS +/-: +1.2
LR
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -3.6
ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SIUE
Advantage
15-14-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 6.3
ATS +/-: +1.2
LR
12-18-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -3.6
ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SIUE
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -4.5
LR
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LR
SIUE
LR
SIUE
ML
52%
16-15
65%
20-11
68%
17-8
60%
18-12
ATS
45%
14-17
55%
17-14
68%
17-8
60%
18-12
TTL
58%
18-13
48%
15-16
100%
25-0
100%
30-0
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