Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Mocs CIT @ UTC

THE CITADEL

BULLDOGSCIT

8-16  |  Road

78
FINAL
Sat, Feb 7 • 2:00 PM ET
McKenzie Arena
View Odds Details →

CHATTANOOGA

MOCSUTC

10-14  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
0%
📊
MOCS
100%
BULLDOGS --
MOCS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
109.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
THE CITADEL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (The Citadel)
BulldogsCIT (-3.5) 0 MocsUTC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

95.5%

Mocs Cover

4.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CIT -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIT)

CIT By 1-7 points

12.2%

CIT By 8-14 points

23.0%

UTC By 1-7 points

3.3%

UTC By 8-14 points

0.6%

AI Model Projected Score
63
THE CITADEL
46
CHATTANOOGA
Simulated Score
65
THE CITADEL
78
CHATTANOOGA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mocs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs (-9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Mocs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u141.5 Loss
Proj Total: 109.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 6, 2026 CIT @ UTC 88 - 85
Feb 21, 2026 UTC @ CIT 93 - 72
Feb 7, 2026 CIT @ UTC 78 - 71
Feb 22, 2025 CIT @ UTC 75 - 76
Jan 4, 2025 UTC @ CIT 81 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +22.4% more
The Citadel: 6.0 vs Chattanooga: 4.6
Rebounding (L5) +14.4% more
The Citadel: 35.8 vs Chattanooga: 30.6
Blocks (L5) +63.1% more
Chattanooga: 3.9 vs The Citadel: 2.4
Turnovers (L5) +26.5% more
Chattanooga: 12.3 vs The Citadel: 9.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIT Score 63.0 78
UTC Score 46.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.0 / 31.5 31.0 / 31.0
Assists 13.0 / 13.7 17.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.9 / 2.4 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.5 / 41.8 44.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 74.2 / 56.6 75.0 / 85.0
Rebounding 30.6 / 35.8 32.0 / 30.0
Steals 4.6 / 6.0 5.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 12.3 / 9.7 12.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
97%MONEY3%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIT
11-22-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
UTC Advantage
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIT Advantage
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
UTC
12-17-0 (41.4%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.7
⚖️ Over/Under
CIT
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.9
UTC
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTC
CIT
UTC
CIT
ML
48% 15-16
59% 19-13
53% 16-14
62% 20-12
ATS
52% 16-15
62% 20-12
55% 17-14
64% 21-12
TTL
77% 24-7
53% 17-15
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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