Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Dragons @ Phoenix DREX @ ELON

DREXEL

DRAGONSDREX

12-12  |  Road

82
FINAL
Sat, Feb 7 • 12:00 PM ET
Schar Center
View Odds Details →

ELON

PHOENIXELON

13-11  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
DRAGONS
0%
📊
PHOENIX
100%
DRAGONS --
PHOENIX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
ELON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
DragonsDREX (-3.5) 0 PhoenixELON (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dragons Cover

38.2%

Phoenix Cover

61.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ELON +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ELON)

DREX By 1-7 points

27.2%

DREX By 8-14 points

20.1%

ELON By 1-7 points

21.6%

ELON By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
75
DREXEL
72
ELON
Simulated Score
73
DREXEL
66
ELON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dragons Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dragons Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Phoenix (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim Dragons (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o137.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim u137.5 Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 DREX @ ELON 82 - 77
Mar 8, 2025 ELON @ DREX 74 - 91
Jan 16, 2025 ELON @ DREX 65 - 54
Jan 13, 2024 DREX @ ELON 89 - 69
Jan 28, 2023 DREX @ ELON 58 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +16.9% more
Drexel: 13.8 vs Elon: 11.5
Field Goal % (L5) +2.7%
Drexel: 46.4% vs Elon: 43.7%
Steals (L5) +45.0% more
Elon: 7.6 vs Drexel: 5.3
Free Throw % (L5) +17.7%
Elon: 65.9% vs Drexel: 48.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DREX Score 75.0 82
ELON Score 72.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.0 / 29.2 34.0 / 41.0
Assists 13.0 / 11.9 12.0 / 15.0
Blocks 3.2 / 3.4 0.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 43.7 / 46.4 41.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 65.9 / 48.2 85.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 36.5 / 31.7 37.0 / 32.0
Steals 7.6 / 5.3 2.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 11.5 / 13.8 10.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DREX Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: +0.3
ELON
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DREX Advantage
18-13-1 (58.1%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: +0.3
ELON
11-19-0 (36.7%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
DREX
14-17-1
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -2.8
ELON
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ELON
DREX
ELON
DREX
ML
61% 19-12
58% 19-14
71% 22-9
81% 26-6
ATS
55% 17-14
70% 23-10
71% 22-9
81% 26-6
TTL
52% 16-15
48% 16-17
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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