WESTERN MICHIGAN
BRONCOSWMU
8-14 | Road
61
TEXAS STATE
BOBCATSTXST
14-11 | Home
77
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCOS
0%
BOBCATS
100%
BRONCOS
--
BOBCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
136.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Western Michigan)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around WMU -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WMU)
WMU By 1-7 points
20.1%
WMU By 8-14 points
27.2%
TXST By 1-7 points
8.0%
TXST By 8-14 points
2.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Western Michigan
74
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Texas State
62
TEXAS STATE
Simulated Score
Western Michigan
68
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Texas State
71
TEXAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Broncos
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bobcats
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Broncos (-5.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Bobcats (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 136.0
D
Sim
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 7, 2026
WMU @ TXST
61 - 77
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.1%
Western Michigan: 37.6%
vs
Texas State: 31.4%
Steals (L5)
+90.9% more
Texas State: 8.0
vs
Western Michigan: 4.2
Blocks (L5)
+61.1% more
Texas State: 3.5
vs
Western Michigan: 2.2
Assists (L5)
+30.6% more
Texas State: 13.2
vs
Western Michigan: 10.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WMU Score
74.0
61
TXST Score
62.0
77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.4 / 37.6
44.0 / 36.0
Assists
13.2 / 10.1
14.0 / 9.0
Blocks
3.5 / 2.2
10.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
44.0 / 42.5
54.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
80.8 / 63.3
90.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
38.4 / 33.1
31.0 / 30.0
Steals
8.0 / 4.2
7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
11.0 / 9.3
10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WMU
10-21-0
(32.3%)
Margin: -4.7
ATS +/-: +1.1
TXST
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WMU
Advantage
16-13-0
(55.2%)
Margin: -4.7
ATS +/-: +1.1
TXST
14-15-1
(48.3%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
WMU
18-11-0
O: 62.1% / U: 37.9%
Total +/-: +1.3
TXST
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TXST
WMU
TXST
WMU
ML
42%
13-18
60%
18-12
83%
25-5
70%
21-9
ATS
48%
15-16
67%
20-10
84%
26-5
70%
21-9
TTL
65%
20-11
57%
17-13
100%
31-0
100%
30-0
Contextual Game News
Big Ten Silence Fuels Outrage Over Controversial Replay Call in …
Bryce Underwood's NFL Draft Stock Drops After Disappointing Seas…
Controversial Extra Second Gives Michigan a Miraculous Win: Insi…
Michigan Fans Face Backlash for Storming Field After Controversi…
Michigan State's New Athletic Director: Dan Bartholomae Takes th…