BOWLING GREEN
FALCONSBGSU
14-9 | Road
54
ARKANSAS STATE
RED WOLVESARST
14-10 | Home
91
AI Model Win Probability
FALCONS
100%
RED WOLVES
0%
FALCONS
--
RED WOLVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
123.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
ARKANSAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Arkansas State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ARST -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARST)
BGSU By 1-7 points
2.2%
BGSU By 8-14 points
0.4%
ARST By 1-7 points
9.3%
ARST By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Bowling Green
52
BOWLING GREEN
Arkansas State
71
ARKANSAS STATE
Simulated Score
Bowling Green
71
BOWLING GREEN
Arkansas State
75
ARKANSAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Wolves
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Wolves
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Wolves (-2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim
Red Wolves (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 123.0
D
Sim
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 7, 2026
BGSU @ ARST
54 - 91
Nov 11, 2023
ARST @ BGSU
75 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+13.6% more
Arkansas State: 13.3
vs
Bowling Green: 11.7
Turnovers (L5)
+13.5% more
Arkansas State: 13.8
vs
Bowling Green: 12.2
Steals (L5)
+10.9% more
Arkansas State: 8.7
vs
Bowling Green: 7.8
Rebounding (L5)
+8.5% more
Arkansas State: 40.1
vs
Bowling Green: 37.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BGSU Score
52.0
54
ARST Score
71.0
91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.1 / 38.5
42.0 / 8.0
Assists
13.3 / 11.7
25.0 / 8.0
Blocks
3.4 / 4.1
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
40.0 / 48.7
52.0 / 31.0
Free Throw %
70.9 / 73.7
57.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
40.1 / 37.0
45.0 / 29.0
Steals
8.7 / 7.8
11.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
13.8 / 12.2
13.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BGSU
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 9.8
ATS +/-: -0.1
ARST
Advantage
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BGSU
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 9.8
ATS +/-: -0.1
ARST
15-15-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
BGSU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -1.2
ARST
15-14-1
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARST
BGSU
ARST
BGSU
ML
48%
15-16
66%
21-11
53%
16-14
56%
18-14
ATS
58%
18-13
72%
23-9
53%
16-14
56%
18-14
TTL
61%
19-12
53%
17-15
100%
30-0
100%
32-0
