DEPAUL
BLUE DEMONSDEP
12-11 | Road
72
PROVIDENCE
FRIARSPROV
10-13 | Home
90
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE DEMONS
0%
FRIARS
100%
BLUE DEMONS
--
FRIARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
186.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
DEPAUL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (DePaul)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEP -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEP)
DEP By 1-7 points
27.4%
DEP By 8-14 points
21.6%
PROV By 1-7 points
20.1%
PROV By 8-14 points
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
DePaul
95
DEPAUL
Providence
91
PROVIDENCE
Simulated Score
DePaul
60
DEPAUL
Providence
75
PROVIDENCE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Blue Demons
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Friars
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Blue Demons (-3.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Friars (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o153.5
Win
Proj Total: 186.0
D
Sim
u153.5
Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
PROV @ DEP
71 - 68
Feb 7, 2026
DEP @ PROV
72 - 90
Mar 5, 2025
DEP @ PROV
80 - 77
Dec 10, 2024
PROV @ DEP
70 - 63
Feb 17, 2024
DEP @ PROV
70 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+36.1% more
DePaul: 4.3
vs
Providence: 2.8
Steals (L5)
+30.4% more
DePaul: 5.8
vs
Providence: 4.0
Assists (L5)
+10.6% more
DePaul: 12.8
vs
Providence: 11.4
Turnovers (L5)
+9.4% more
DePaul: 12.7
vs
Providence: 11.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEP Score
95.0
72
PROV Score
91.0
90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.3 / 31.8
43.0 / 22.0
Assists
11.4 / 12.8
16.0 / 11.0
Blocks
2.8 / 4.3
5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
47.5 / 41.2
59.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
71.8 / 52.3
60.0 / 64.0
Rebounding
40.5 / 33.1
41.0 / 28.0
Steals
4.0 / 5.8
6.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
11.5 / 12.7
16.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEP
Advantage
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
PROV
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEP
Advantage
18-12-2
(60.0%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
PROV
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
DEP
11-21-0
O: 34.4% / U: 65.6%
Total +/-: -5.1
PROV
22-11-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3%
Total +/-: +8.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PROV
DEP
PROV
DEP
ML
59%
19-13
59%
19-13
67%
20-10
80%
24-6
ATS
50%
16-16
50%
16-16
67%
20-10
80%
24-6
TTL
44%
14-18
53%
17-15
100%
30-0
100%
30-0
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