WISCONSIN
BADGERSWIS
16-6 | Road
77
INDIANA
HOOSIERSIU
15-8 | Home
78
AI Model Win Probability
BADGERS
0%
HOOSIERS
100%
BADGERS
--
HOOSIERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
WISCONSIN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Wisconsin)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around WIS -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WIS)
WIS By 1-7 points
13.7%
WIS By 8-14 points
24.3%
IU By 1-7 points
4.0%
IU By 8-14 points
0.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Wisconsin
86
WISCONSIN
Indiana
70
INDIANA
Simulated Score
Wisconsin
68
WISCONSIN
Indiana
72
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Badgers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hoosiers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Badgers (-3.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim
Hoosiers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o155.5
Loss
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim
u155.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 7, 2026
WIS @ IU
77 - 78
Feb 4, 2025
IU @ WIS
64 - 76
Feb 27, 2024
WIS @ IU
70 - 74
Jan 19, 2024
IU @ WIS
79 - 91
Jan 14, 2023
WIS @ IU
45 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+12.1% more
Wisconsin: 35.1
vs
Indiana: 30.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.6%
Wisconsin: 36.3%
vs
Indiana: 32.6%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.5%
Wisconsin: 45.5%
vs
Indiana: 43.0%
Steals (L5)
+55.9% more
Indiana: 5.8
vs
Wisconsin: 3.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WIS Score
86.0
77
IU Score
70.0
78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.6 / 36.3
23.0 / 33.0
Assists
18.4 / 15.1
13.0 / 16.0
Blocks
3.5 / 3.1
9.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
43.0 / 45.5
48.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
81.6 / 81.2
87.0 / 92.0
Rebounding
30.8 / 35.1
37.0 / 37.0
Steals
5.8 / 3.7
1.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
9.6 / 7.9
8.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WIS
Advantage
24-11-0
(68.6%)
Margin: 6.9
ATS +/-: +1.1
IU
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 6.0
ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WIS
Advantage
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.9
ATS +/-: +1.1
IU
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 6.0
ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
WIS
22-13-0
O: 62.9% / U: 37.1%
Total +/-: +3.5
IU
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IU
WIS
IU
WIS
ML
66%
21-11
60%
21-14
71%
22-9
69%
24-11
ATS
53%
17-15
51%
18-17
71%
22-9
69%
24-11
TTL
56%
18-14
57%
20-15
100%
31-0
100%
35-0
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