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ARKANSAS

RAZORBACKSARK

16-6  |  Road

88
FINAL
Sat, Feb 7 • 12:00 PM ET
Humphrey Coliseum
View Odds Details →

MISSISSIPPI STATE

BULLDOGSMSST

11-11  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
RAZORBACKS
0%
📊
BULLDOGS
100%
RAZORBACKS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
ARKANSAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Arkansas)
RazorbacksARK (-3.5) 0 BulldogsMSST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Razorbacks Cover

75.8%

Bulldogs Cover

24.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ARK -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARK)

ARK By 1-7 points

26.2%

ARK By 8-14 points

25.3%

MSST By 1-7 points

15.3%

MSST By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
74
ARKANSAS
67
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Simulated Score
72
ARKANSAS
75
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Razorbacks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Razorbacks (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u163.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim u163.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 ARK @ MSST 88 - 68
Mar 8, 2025 MSST @ ARK 92 - 93
Feb 17, 2024 ARK @ MSST 67 - 71
Feb 11, 2023 MSST @ ARK 70 - 64
Feb 5, 2022 MSST @ ARK 55 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +32.0% more
Arkansas: 15.5 vs Mississippi State: 10.6
Field Goal % (L5) +9.3%
Arkansas: 52.3% vs Mississippi State: 43.1%
Turnovers (L5) +100.7% more
Mississippi State: 13.8 vs Arkansas: 6.9
Rebounding (L5) +27.5% more
Mississippi State: 39.4 vs Arkansas: 30.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARK Score 74.0 88
MSST Score 67.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.7 / 27.2 20.0 / 36.0
Assists 10.6 / 15.5 15.0 / 22.0
Blocks 3.7 / 3.8 7.0 / 9.0
Field Goal % 43.1 / 52.3 46.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 67.6 / 68.9 64.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 39.4 / 30.9 33.0 / 38.0
Steals 5.0 / 5.0 3.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 13.8 / 6.9 11.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
90%MONEY10%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARK Advantage
28-9-0 (75.7%)
Margin: 9.2 ATS +/-: +1.9
MSST
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARK Advantage
23-14-0 (62.2%)
Margin: 9.2 ATS +/-: +1.9
MSST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ARK
22-15-0
O: 59.5% / U: 40.5% Total +/-: +8.0
MSST
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSST
ARK
MSST
ARK
ML
66% 21-11
68% 25-12
55% 17-14
81% 25-6
ATS
56% 18-14
70% 26-11
55% 17-14
81% 25-6
TTL
59% 19-13
57% 21-16
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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