Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Fighting Illini @ Spartans ILL @ MSU

ILLINOIS

FIGHTING ILLINIILL

20-3  |  Road

82
FINAL
Sat, Feb 7 • 8:00 PM ET
Breslin Center
View Odds Details →

MICHIGAN STATE

SPARTANSMSU

19-4  |  Home

85
AI Model Win Probability
FIGHTING ILLINI
100%
📊
SPARTANS
0%
FIGHTING ILLINI --
SPARTANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
103.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Michigan State)
Fighting IlliniILL (-3.5) 0 SpartansMSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Fighting Illini Cover

38.2%

Spartans Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MSU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSU)

ILL By 1-7 points

21.6%

ILL By 8-14 points

10.7%

MSU By 1-7 points

27.2%

MSU By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
50
ILLINOIS
53
MICHIGAN STATE
Simulated Score
70
ILLINOIS
75
MICHIGAN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Spartans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Spartans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Spartans (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Spartans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u143.5 Loss
Proj Total: 103.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 ILL @ MSU 82 - 85
Feb 15, 2025 MSU @ ILL 79 - 65
Jan 19, 2025 ILL @ MSU 78 - 80
Feb 10, 2024 ILL @ MSU 80 - 88
Jan 11, 2024 MSU @ ILL 68 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +105.1% more
Michigan State: 4.9 vs Illinois: 2.4
Turnovers (L5) +28.2% more
Michigan State: 11.4 vs Illinois: 8.9
Assists (L5) +18.0% more
Michigan State: 18.8 vs Illinois: 15.9
Blocks (L5) +12.5% more
Illinois: 3.7 vs Michigan State: 3.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ILL Score 50.0 82
MSU Score 53.0 85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.0 / 38.4 29.0 / 28.0
Assists 18.8 / 15.9 18.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.2 / 3.7 4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 46.6 / 45.7 43.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 76.7 / 77.0 87.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 38.4 / 42.2 48.0 / 38.0
Steals 4.9 / 2.4 3.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 11.4 / 8.9 8.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ILL
28-9-0 (75.7%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +2.9
MSU Advantage
27-8-0 (77.1%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ILL Advantage
22-15-0 (59.5%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +2.9
MSU
17-16-2 (51.5%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ILL
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5% Total +/-: -1.4
MSU
16-19-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSU
ILL
MSU
ILL
ML
71% 25-10
65% 24-13
61% 20-13
57% 20-15
ATS
71% 25-10
70% 26-11
61% 20-13
57% 20-15
TTL
49% 17-18
57% 21-16
100% 33-0
100% 35-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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