DUKE
BLUE DEVILSDUKE
21-1 | Road
68
NORTH CAROLINA
TAR HEELSUNC
18-4 | Home
71
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE DEVILS
100%
TAR HEELS
0%
BLUE DEVILS
--
TAR HEELS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
194.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-26.0
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +26.0 points (North Carolina)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNC -26.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNC)
DUKE By 1-7 points
0.4%
DUKE By 8-14 points
0.0%
UNC By 1-7 points
2.7%
UNC By 8-14 points
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Duke
84
DUKE
North Carolina
110
NORTH CAROLINA
Simulated Score
Duke
74
DUKE
North Carolina
77
NORTH CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tar Heels
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tar Heels
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tar Heels (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Sim
Tar Heels (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o151.5
Loss
Proj Total: 194.0
D
Sim
u151.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
UNC @ DUKE
61 - 76
Feb 7, 2026
DUKE @ UNC
68 - 71
Mar 14, 2025
UNC @ DUKE
71 - 74
Mar 8, 2025
DUKE @ UNC
82 - 69
Feb 1, 2025
UNC @ DUKE
70 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+42.3% more
North Carolina: 3.0
vs
Duke: 2.1
Assists (L5)
+14.8% more
North Carolina: 17.4
vs
Duke: 15.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.4%
North Carolina: 37.9%
vs
Duke: 29.4%
Free Throw % (L5)
+1.9%
North Carolina: 73.7%
vs
Duke: 71.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DUKE Score
84.0
68
UNC Score
110.0
71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.9 / 29.4
42.0 / 37.0
Assists
17.4 / 15.1
9.0 / 14.0
Blocks
3.0 / 2.1
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
48.4 / 50.3
47.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
73.7 / 71.8
79.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
37.8 / 37.3
26.0 / 38.0
Steals
5.7 / 8.7
5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
7.7 / 9.7
7.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DUKE
Advantage
35-3-0
(92.1%)
Margin: 18.0
ATS +/-: +1.6
UNC
24-9-0
(72.7%)
Margin: 8.1
ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DUKE
20-18-0
(52.6%)
Margin: 18.0
ATS +/-: +1.6
UNC
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 8.1
ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
DUKE
14-24-0
O: 36.8% / U: 63.2%
Total +/-: -3.2
UNC
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6%
Total +/-: -2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNC
DUKE
UNC
DUKE
ML
76%
25-8
71%
27-11
69%
22-10
73%
24-9
ATS
73%
24-9
79%
30-8
69%
22-10
73%
24-9
TTL
55%
18-15
47%
18-20
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
Contextual Game News
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