NORTH ALABAMA
LIONSUNA
7-14 | Road
62
AUSTIN PEAY
GOVERNORSAPSU
16-6 | Home
91
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
0%
GOVERNORS
100%
LIONS
--
GOVERNORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
136.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+12.0
AUSTIN PEAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around APSU +12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (APSU)
UNA By 1-7 points
20.1%
UNA By 8-14 points
27.2%
APSU By 1-7 points
8.0%
APSU By 8-14 points
2.2%
AI Model Projected Score
North Alabama
74
NORTH ALABAMA
Austin Peay
62
AUSTIN PEAY
Simulated Score
North Alabama
68
NORTH ALABAMA
Austin Peay
75
AUSTIN PEAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Lions
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Governors
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Governors (+12.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +12.0
D
Sim
Governors (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u145.5
Loss
Proj Total: 136.0
D
Sim
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 7, 2026
UNA @ APSU
62 - 91
Mar 3, 2025
APSU @ UNA
64 - 90
Feb 5, 2025
UNA @ APSU
74 - 64
Jan 25, 2025
APSU @ UNA
84 - 88
Mar 7, 2024
UNA @ APSU
71 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+53.3% more
North Alabama: 4.6
vs
Austin Peay: 2.2
Assists (L5)
+26.9% more
Austin Peay: 15.1
vs
North Alabama: 11.9
Steals (L5)
+18.5% more
Austin Peay: 8.0
vs
North Alabama: 6.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+13.0%
Austin Peay: 76.2%
vs
North Alabama: 63.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UNA Score
74.0
62
APSU Score
62.0
91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.9 / 29.8
59.0 / 21.0
Assists
15.1 / 11.9
16.0 / 7.0
Blocks
2.2 / 4.6
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
50.4 / 43.8
63.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
76.2 / 63.2
67.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
33.0 / 30.9
28.0 / 33.0
Steals
8.0 / 6.7
7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
11.5 / 11.9
7.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNA
9-21-0
(30.0%)
Margin: -8.2
ATS +/-: -4.3
APSU
Advantage
22-9-0
(71.0%)
Margin: 8.4
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNA
10-17-1
(37.0%)
Margin: -8.2
ATS +/-: -4.3
APSU
Advantage
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 8.4
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UNA
12-16-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -0.4
APSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
APSU
UNA
APSU
UNA
ML
53%
16-14
43%
13-17
59%
16-11
57%
16-12
ATS
57%
17-13
60%
18-12
59%
16-11
57%
16-12
TTL
57%
17-13
63%
19-11
100%
27-0
100%
28-0
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