Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Leathernecks @ Tigers WIU @ TNST

WESTERN ILLINOIS

LEATHERNECKSWIU

4-20  |  Road

56
FINAL
Sat, Feb 7 • 4:30 PM ET
Gentry Center
View Odds Details →

TENNESSEE STATE

TIGERSTNST

15-8  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
LEATHERNECKS
0%
📊
TIGERS
100%
LEATHERNECKS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
119.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
WESTERN ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Western Illinois)
LeathernecksWIU (-3.5) 0 TigersTNST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Leathernecks Cover

97.1%

Tigers Cover

2.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around WIU -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WIU)

WIU By 1-7 points

9.3%

WIU By 8-14 points

20.1%

TNST By 1-7 points

2.2%

TNST By 8-14 points

0.4%

AI Model Projected Score
69
WESTERN ILLINOIS
50
TENNESSEE STATE
Simulated Score
68
WESTERN ILLINOIS
72
TENNESSEE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Leathernecks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Leathernecks (-14.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 119.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 WIU @ TNST 56 - 83
Jan 8, 2026 TNST @ WIU 90 - 68
Feb 6, 2025 WIU @ TNST 69 - 87
Jan 11, 2025 TNST @ WIU 72 - 52
Mar 7, 2024 TNST @ WIU 59 - 61
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.6%
Western Illinois: 34.2% vs Tennessee State: 29.6%
Blocks (L5) +307.0% more
Tennessee State: 4.0 vs Western Illinois: 0.9
Steals (L5) +76.7% more
Tennessee State: 8.6 vs Western Illinois: 4.9
Assists (L5) +59.6% more
Tennessee State: 13.8 vs Western Illinois: 8.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WIU Score 69.0 56
TNST Score 50.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.6 / 34.2 21.0 / 20.0
Assists 13.8 / 8.6 15.0 / 7.0
Blocks 4.0 / 0.9 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 47.2 / 38.8 52.0 / 33.0
Free Throw % 73.6 / 71.3 92.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 33.8 / 25.1 39.0 / 32.0
Steals 8.6 / 4.9 4.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 9.6 / 10.4 8.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
1%TICKETS99%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
21%MONEY79%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WIU
5-26-0 (16.1%)
Margin: -11.9 ATS +/-: -5.3
TNST Advantage
23-10-0 (69.7%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WIU
11-17-0 (39.3%)
Margin: -11.9 ATS +/-: -5.3
TNST Advantage
18-11-1 (62.1%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
WIU
13-15-0
O: 46.4% / U: 53.6% Total +/-: -0.1
TNST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TNST
WIU
TNST
WIU
ML
52% 16-15
45% 14-17
63% 17-10
61% 19-12
ATS
68% 21-10
52% 16-15
64% 18-10
61% 19-12
TTL
52% 16-15
45% 14-17
100% 28-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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