Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bearkats @ Bulldogs SHSU @ LT

SAM HOUSTON

BEARKATSSHSU

16-7  |  Road

78
FINAL
Sat, Feb 7 • 3:00 PM ET
Thomas Assembly Center
View Odds Details →

LOUISIANA TECH

BULLDOGSLT

12-10  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
BEARKATS
0%
📊
BULLDOGS
100%
BEARKATS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-26.0
SAM HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +26.0 points (Sam Houston)
BearkatsSHSU (-3.5) 0 BulldogsLT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bearkats Cover

99.5%

Bulldogs Cover

0.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SHSU -26.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SHSU)

SHSU By 1-7 points

2.7%

SHSU By 8-14 points

9.3%

LT By 1-7 points

0.4%

LT By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
82
SAM HOUSTON
56
LOUISIANA TECH
Simulated Score
68
SAM HOUSTON
73
LOUISIANA TECH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bearkats Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bearkats (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u142.5 Loss
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 SHSU @ LT 78 - 87
Jan 31, 2026 LT @ SHSU 67 - 83
Mar 1, 2025 LT @ SHSU 90 - 66
Feb 1, 2025 SHSU @ LT 61 - 66
Mar 7, 2024 SHSU @ LT 72 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +25.1% more
Sam Houston: 13.8 vs Louisiana Tech: 10.4
Steals (L5) +11.6% more
Sam Houston: 5.8 vs Louisiana Tech: 5.1
Field Goal % (L5) +4.7%
Sam Houston: 44.9% vs Louisiana Tech: 40.2%
Free Throw % (L5) +3.6%
Sam Houston: 68.9% vs Louisiana Tech: 65.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SHSU Score 82.0 78
LT Score 56.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.9 / 34.3 6.0 / 48.0
Assists 10.4 / 13.8 17.0 / 14.0
Blocks 4.6 / 2.3 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 40.2 / 44.9 46.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 65.3 / 68.9 74.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 37.9 / 40.7 46.0 / 30.0
Steals 5.1 / 5.8 10.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 12.3 / 10.7 12.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
99%MONEY1%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SHSU Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 7.1 ATS +/-: +3.5
LT
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SHSU Advantage
20-11-0 (64.5%)
Margin: 7.1 ATS +/-: +3.5
LT
17-13-1 (56.7%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SHSU
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9% Total +/-: +2.2
LT
15-15-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LT
SHSU
LT
SHSU
ML
58% 19-14
55% 18-15
72% 23-9
74% 23-8
ATS
61% 20-13
64% 21-12
72% 23-9
74% 23-8
TTL
61% 20-13
48% 16-17
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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