Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Blue Raiders @ Blue Hens MTSU @ DEL

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

BLUE RAIDERSMTSU

11-11  |  Road

88
FINAL
Sat, Feb 7 • 1:00 PM ET
Bob Carpenter Center
View Odds Details →

DELAWARE

BLUE HENSDEL

6-16  |  Home

89
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE RAIDERS
0%
📊
BLUE HENS
100%
BLUE RAIDERS --
BLUE HENS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
129.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (Middle Tennessee)
Blue RaidersMTSU (-3.5) 0 Blue HensDEL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Raiders Cover

98.9%

Blue Hens Cover

1.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MTSU -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTSU)

MTSU By 1-7 points

4.8%

MTSU By 8-14 points

13.7%

DEL By 1-7 points

0.8%

DEL By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
76
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
53
DELAWARE
Simulated Score
68
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
72
DELAWARE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Blue Raiders Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Hens Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Blue Raiders (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Sim Blue Hens (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u134.5 Loss
Proj Total: 129.0
D
Sim u134.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 DEL @ MTSU 66 - 78
Feb 7, 2026 MTSU @ DEL 88 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +40.0% more
Middle Tennessee: 3.0 vs Delaware: 1.8
Assists (L5) +30.5% more
Middle Tennessee: 14.7 vs Delaware: 10.2
Rebounding (L5) +23.7% more
Middle Tennessee: 37.8 vs Delaware: 28.8
Steals (L5) +10.7% more
Middle Tennessee: 5.7 vs Delaware: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MTSU Score 76.0 88
DEL Score 53.0 89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.5 / 30.7 50.0 / 33.0
Assists 10.2 / 14.7 13.0 / 20.0
Blocks 1.8 / 3.0 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 44.0 / 40.7 55.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 84.6 / 63.9 90.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 28.8 / 37.8 26.0 / 33.0
Steals 5.1 / 5.7 7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 11.8 12.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
77%MONEY23%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MTSU Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: +0.8
DEL
10-21-0 (32.3%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MTSU
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: +0.8
DEL Advantage
15-14-1 (51.7%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MTSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +1.7
DEL
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEL
MTSU
DEL
MTSU
ML
45% 14-17
56% 18-14
52% 16-15
69% 22-10
ATS
61% 19-12
75% 24-8
52% 16-15
69% 22-10
TTL
65% 20-11
53% 17-15
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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