Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Crimson Tide @ Tigers ALA @ AUB

ALABAMA

CRIMSON TIDEALA

15-7  |  Road

96
FINAL
Sat, Feb 7 • 4:00 PM ET
Neville Arena
View Odds Details →

AUBURN

TIGERSAUB

14-8  |  Home

92
AI Model Win Probability
CRIMSON TIDE
0%
📊
TIGERS
100%
CRIMSON TIDE --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
190.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-38.0
ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +38.0 points (Alabama)
Crimson TideALA (-3.5) 0 TigersAUB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Crimson Tide Cover

100.0%

Tigers Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ALA -38.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALA)

ALA By 1-7 points

0.1%

ALA By 8-14 points

0.8%

AUB By 1-7 points

0.0%

AUB By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
114
ALABAMA
76
AUBURN
Simulated Score
74
ALABAMA
78
AUBURN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Crimson Tide Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Crimson Tide (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -38.0
D
Sim Tigers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o176.5 Win
Proj Total: 190.0
D
Sim u176.5 Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 AUB @ ALA 84 - 96
Feb 7, 2026 ALA @ AUB 96 - 92
Mar 8, 2025 ALA @ AUB 93 - 91
Feb 15, 2025 AUB @ ALA 94 - 85
Feb 7, 2024 ALA @ AUB 81 - 99
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +36.3% more
Alabama: 4.2 vs Auburn: 2.7
Assists (L5) +33.5% more
Alabama: 16.3 vs Auburn: 10.9
Rebounding (L5) +21.0% more
Alabama: 39.7 vs Auburn: 31.3
Turnovers (L5) +11.1% more
Alabama: 9.5 vs Auburn: 8.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ALA Score 114.0 96
AUB Score 76.0 92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.5 / 34.6 32.0 / 52.0
Assists 10.9 / 16.3 12.0 / 17.0
Blocks 2.7 / 4.2 4.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 44.2 / 43.9 46.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 75.7 / 72.3 77.0 / 87.0
Rebounding 31.3 / 39.7 35.0 / 30.0
Steals 8.3 / 5.5 9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 8.4 / 9.5 5.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALA Advantage
25-10-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 8.5 ATS +/-: +1.1
AUB
22-16-0 (57.9%)
Margin: 4.2 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALA Advantage
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: 8.5 ATS +/-: +1.1
AUB
15-23-0 (39.5%)
Margin: 4.2 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ALA
17-16-1
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +0.2
AUB
22-16-0
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +4.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AUB
ALA
AUB
ALA
ML
58% 22-16
63% 22-13
75% 24-8
58% 19-14
ATS
74% 28-10
60% 21-14
75% 24-8
58% 19-14
TTL
53% 20-18
63% 22-13
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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